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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 7:38AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
American Family Field, Milwaukee
Indoor
Thu 6 Aug 2026, 6:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 3.5 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings +230

The model graded 70 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $330 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 6 Aug 2026, 6:10PM at American Family Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win63.1%
The price says30.3%
Best price+230
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 High63% chance +230
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings High73% chance
Spread Lean46% chance
Spread Lean49% chance
Spread High61% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings High82% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot38% chance
Spread High78% chance
Spread Long-shot18% chance
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 13 props Highup to 89%
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 89%
Batter - Singles × 11 props Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 3 props Highup to 83%
Batter - Walks × 8 props Highup to 92%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers last met on Thu 6 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Over 3.5 · $100 returned $330

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $240
Our call on this game: 1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
Over
1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Kirby Yates RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Lake Bachar SP

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Jake Bauers 1BDay-to-day
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Grant Anderson RPOut
  • Bryse Wilson RPOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Logan Henderson SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Esmerlyn Valdez Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Christian Yelich MIL Batter - Hits
Nick Gonzales Batter - Singles
Braxton Ashcraft Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Jhostynxon Garcia Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMilwaukee BrewersNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4Free board14-13

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineMilwaukee Brewers run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4

Milwaukee Brewers spread form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Milwaukee Brewers total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMilwaukee Brewers team totalNo line posted
2.3runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Pittsburgh Pirates L51-4

Milwaukee Brewers team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — recent results

Milwaukee Brewers have won 3 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 4 of their last 5.

Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W8–6CHCHome
W4–3CHCHome
W4–3CHCHome
L8–12CINAway
L3–5CINAway
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2CHWAway
W9–3CHWAway
W1–0LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W1–0LAAHome

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 2.6 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 3.0 (3-2); Milwaukee Brewers pitchers are allowing 2.4 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

2.6
Milwaukee Brewers runs/G
3.0
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesMilwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game2.63.0
Hits / game3.45.2
Home runs / game0.40.4
Walks drawn / game1.41.4
Batter K / game2.03.4
Earned runs allowed / game2.42.6
Pitching K / game2.04.0
Walks allowed / game0.83.6
L5 record3-23-2

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Milwaukee Brewers won 4, Pittsburgh Pirates won 6.

DateMilwaukee BrewersPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Aug 652Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 542Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 442Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 334Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 12514Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 1123Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 1167Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 2650Milwaukee Brewers
Apr 2536Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 2406Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Jake Bauers 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Rob Zastryzny RPOUT
Grant Anderson RPOUT
Bryse Wilson RPOUT
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT
Quinn Priester SPOUT
Angel Zerpa RPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Kirby Yates RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers — model preview

Our Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers prediction for August 7, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 7, 2026 our model has run Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Brice Turang Under 1.5 Hits (-417), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
06 Aug 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers +1 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Milwaukee Brewers 1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 6 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Milwaukee Brewers -0.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Brewers, or as Brewers vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Thursday 6 August 2026 at American Family Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 48 meetings on record
Milwaukee Brewers 29–19 across the last 48 meetings · these games average 8.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers5–2Milwaukee Brewers
5 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers4–2Milwaukee Brewers
4 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers4–2Milwaukee Brewers
3 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers3–4Pittsburgh Pirates
12 Jul 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates14–5Pittsburgh Pirates
11 Jul 2026Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates3–2Pittsburgh Pirates
26 Apr 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers5–0Milwaukee Brewers
25 Apr 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers3–6Pittsburgh Pirates
24 Apr 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers0–6Pittsburgh Pirates
7 Sep 2025Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–10Milwaukee Brewers

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 48 meetings on file.

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