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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 6:06PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Mon 17 Aug 2026, 10:05PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
70.0%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 9 Total Runs +144

The model graded 70 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $244 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 70.0% across 50 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 17 Aug 2026, 10:05PM at Tropicana Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win36.7%
The price says36.6%
Best price+144
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9 Long-shot37% chance +144
Spread Long-shot33% chance
Total Runs Lean60% chance
Total Runs Long-shot13% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot27% chance
Total Runs High65% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings High76% chance
Total Runs High72% chance
Total Runs High69% chance
Pitcher - Walks × 2 props Highup to 84%
Batter - Singles × 9 props Highup to 95%
Batter - Hits × 5 props Highup to 87%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 12 props Highup to 95%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 2 props Highup to 81%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays last met on Mon 17 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Over 9 · $100 returned $244

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 25 of 137 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 9
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $563
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,781+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Gunnar Henderson SSDay-to-day
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Christian Franklin CFOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Tyler O'Neill RFOut
  • Luis Robert Jr. CFOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Shane Baz SP

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Taylor Walls SSOut
  • Manuel Rodriguez RPOut
  • Garrett Cleavinger RPOut
  • Shane McClanahan SPOut
  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Griffin Jax SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Brandon Young Pitcher - Walks
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Batter - Singles
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Batter - Hits
Ryan Vilade Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Jackson Holliday BAL Batter - Singles

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineTampa Bay RaysNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.6L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline form: last five 4-1, 3.6 runs/gm.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.6L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1Free board15-15

Tampa Bay Rays spread form: last five 4-1, 3.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Tampa Bay Rays total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
2.8runs we expect
L5 RF3.6L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.6 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent results

Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5 games; Baltimore Orioles have won 2 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–2ATLAway
W7–1ATLAway
L6–8TEXAway
W7–6TEXAway
W6–3TEXAway
Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–5CLEHome
L5–9CLEHome
W6–4CLEHome
L1–3BOSHome
L0–5BOSHome

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Tampa Bay Rays won 2, Baltimore Orioles won 8.

DateTampa Bay RaysBaltimore OriolesWinner
Aug 2331Tampa Bay Rays
Aug 2223Baltimore Orioles
Aug 2135Baltimore Orioles
Aug 1776Tampa Bay Rays
Aug 16210Baltimore Orioles
Aug 1534Baltimore Orioles
Aug 1456Baltimore Orioles
May 27211Baltimore Orioles
May 2616Baltimore Orioles
May 2579Baltimore Orioles

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Taylor Walls SSOUT
Manuel Rodriguez RPOUT
Garrett Cleavinger RPOUT
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Jake Fraley RFOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Ben Williamson 2BOUT
Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Gunnar Henderson SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Christian Franklin CFOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Tyler O'Neill RFOUT
Luis Robert Jr. CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays — model preview

Our Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays prediction for August 18, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 18, 2026 our model has run Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore Orioles +2.5 (-417), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
50
Total Picks
70.0%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
17 Aug 26 Spread Baltimore Orioles +2 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Baltimore Orioles 2.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Baltimore Orioles 3.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 6 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Spread Baltimore Orioles +2.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Baltimore Orioles -3.5 ✗ MISS
17 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -2 ✗ MISS
17 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 ✗ MISS
17 Aug 26 Spread Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Orioles vs Rays, or as Rays vs Orioles. The most recent game between them was Monday 17 August 2026 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 70.0% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 60 meetings on record
Baltimore Orioles 37–23 across the last 60 meetings · these games average 9.0 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
23 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles1–3Tampa Bay Rays
22 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles3–2Baltimore Orioles
21 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles5–3Baltimore Orioles
17 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays7–6Tampa Bay Rays
16 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays2–10Baltimore Orioles
15 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays3–4Baltimore Orioles
14 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays5–6Baltimore Orioles
27 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles11–2Baltimore Orioles
26 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles6–1Baltimore Orioles
25 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles9–7Baltimore Orioles

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 60 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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