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Model picks & player props
Sydney Swans
VS
Hawthorn Hawks

Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 11:16PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Thu 19 Mar 2026, 8:30AM
0
Game markets graded
16
Props graded
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Game picks

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Player props & full board
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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Swans

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Hawks

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Tom Papley Sydney Swans Goals
Brodie Grundy Sydney Swans Disposals
Blake Hardwick Hawthorn Disposals
Lloyd Meek Hawthorn Disposals
Jack Gunston Hawthorn Goals

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Sydney Swans @ Hawthorn Hawks — what the model found

Our model graded 16 betting markets for Sydney Swans at Hawthorn Hawks — 0 on the game itself and 16 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

16
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 16 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks — recent results

Hawthorn Hawks have won 0 of their last 0 games; Sydney Swans have won 5 of their last 5.

Sydney Swans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W141–88BLHome
W123–70NMFCHome
W112–76ESSAway
W167–70PORTHome
W107–88STKAway

Sydney Swans @ Hawthorn Hawks — model preview

Expert analysis and top betting picks for Hawthorn Hawks vs Sydney Swans. Includes analysis on key players like Sam Wicks. Discover AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Hawthorn Hawks vs Sydney Swans stats and odds.

Sam Wicks (Sydney Swans) Over 11.5 Disposals (-167)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over on disposals, you want someone in form, someone who's making waves. That's where Sam Wicks fits the bill. Wicks isn't just knocking on the door of 11.5 disposals; he's practically kicking it down. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 13.2 disposals, with a recent upward trend against Hawthorn specifically, averaging 14 disposals. With a knack for finding space and racking up kicks (averaging 8.4 per game), Wicks is poised to exploit the Hawks' defense. Add in his recent 3-game streak of hitting his disposal mark on the road, and you've got a player brimming with confidence. Trust Wicks to not just meet but exceed that 11.5 disposals line at the MCG.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Swans vs Hawks, or as Hawks vs Swans. The most recent game between them was Thursday 19 March 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 16 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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