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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lloyd Meek is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 65 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 65%, implied 75%, edge +2.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:23AM UTC
AFL

Lloyd Meek

Hawthorn

+2.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+2.1% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
77 in 100
Predicted
12.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 77.3% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +2.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals77.3%64.9%75.2%1.54+2.1%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Lloyd Meek Over 9.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle and Hawthorn are both strong teams, but Fremantle has been getting the ball inside 50 more often lately. Lloyd Meek is likely to have plenty of chances to grab disposals since Fremantle's game plan focuses on moving the ball forward. With their recent success, they'll be looking to keep that momentum going, which should help Meek reach over 9.5 disposals in this match. The most concrete risk here is that both teams have been quite evenly matched in contested possessions, making it tricky for any player to shine. However, given Fremantle's recent form and how they use their key players, Meek seems set to have a big impact.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Lloyd Meek averaged 14.5 disposals, 0.4 goals and 2.4 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

14.5
Disposals
0.4
Goals
2.4
Marks
3.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Lloyd Meek recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide15031
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs23165
24 Aug 24North Melbourne16031
18 Aug 24Richmond13034
11 Aug 24Carlton14114
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS16044
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows11016
20 Jul 24Collingwood13002
13 Jul 24Fremantle15034
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats13031
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Clearances 3.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Lloyd Meek (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lloyd Meek is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.1% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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