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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Gunston is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 67%, implied 78%, edge +1.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 5:34AM UTC
AFL

Jack Gunston

Hawthorn

+1.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+1.1% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 27°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
2.8 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 79.2% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +1.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals79.2%66.9%78.1%1.50+1.1%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Jack Gunston Over 1.5 Goals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jack Gunston has been on fire, scoring often in his last few games. He's playing against Fremantle, who have a tough time stopping forwards from getting goals. Fremantle has been letting the opposition inside their 50 more times than they can manage, which gives Gunston plenty of chances to score. While both teams have won 7 of their last 10 matches, Fremantle does struggle a bit with contested ball. This could give Gunston even more opportunities to find the scoreboard. The risk is that if Fremantle tightens up their defense, it might make it harder for him to get those goals. Still, betting on over 1.5 goals for Jack Gunston seems like a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Jack Gunston averaged 8.8 disposals, 1.6 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

8.8
Disposals
1.6
Goals
4.6
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Jack Gunston recorded 2 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide2010
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs4121
24 Aug 24North Melbourne10132
18 Aug 24Richmond17591
11 Aug 24Carlton15392
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS5431
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats2020
30 Jun 24West Coast Eagles16152
15 Jun 24Richmond1010
8 Jun 24GWS GIANTS7360
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 1.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Goals 2.5 Over -137 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Goals 1.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals Pending
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals Pending

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About This Player

Jack Gunston (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Gunston is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.1% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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