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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Papley is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 74%, implied 83%, edge +2.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:38AM UTC
AFL

Tom Papley

Sydney Swans

+2.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -500 (1.20) · $100→$120
+2.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
86 in 100
Predicted
1.7 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 86.0% · the book's price implies 83.3% · gap +2.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals86.0%74.1%83.3%1.35+2.7%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions: Tom Papley Over 0.5 Goals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The bet on Tom Papley to score over 0.5 goals seems like a smart choice, especially with the odds at -500. Our data shows that he has been really effective lately, with strong numbers in scoring and creating chances. He's been involved in a lot of plays, and his recent performance suggests he's likely to find the back of the net. The main concern here is that the Brisbane Lions are a tough opponent, so it won't be easy. However, Papley has been consistent and shows no signs of slowing down. Given how well he's been playing and the scoring chances he's creating, this pick looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Tom Papley averaged 14.9 disposals, 1.7 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

14.9
Disposals
1.7
Goals
3.8
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Papley recorded 10 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions10121
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide8330
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS16243
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions7011
13 Jul 24North Melbourne19452
7 Jul 24St Kilda16140
29 Jun 24Fremantle15211
22 Jun 24GWS GIANTS19230
15 Jun 24Adelaide Crows19160
9 Jun 24Geelong Cats15463
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 16.5 Under -119 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -526 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Papley is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 5 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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