On September 19, 2026 our model has run Brisbane Lions at Hawthorn Hawks and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Under 21.5 Team Total Points Q1 (-108), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.
Every bet we like in this game
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Under 21.5 Team Total Points Q1 (-108)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
You can get under 21.5 points for Brisbane Lions in the first quarter at almost even odds. Our numbers suggest this is a close call, but there's a good reason to think it might hit. The Lions have been strong lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games and scoring an average of just under 50 points before half-time. However, the risk here is that both teams are pretty evenly matched, and Hawthorn can also put up a fight at home.
Even though Brisbane has been on fire, the odds suggest this quarter might be tighter. Given our model's expected total of about 20.8 points, it looks like this could be a low-scoring start. With both teams knowing how to defend, going under 21.5 seems like a smart bet for this matchup.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Under 44.5 Team Total Points H1 (-115)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
The odds for Brisbane Lions to score under 44.5 points in the first half look interesting. They have been scoring a lot lately, but they also face Hawthorn Hawks, who can be tough to break down at home. Our numbers suggest this matchup could be close, rating it like a coin flip, which means there's a solid chance it could go either way.
Brisbane has been averaging nearly 50 points before half-time, but the Hawks may keep them in check, especially with the Lions playing away. One risk here is how close the teams are in the standings, which can lead to a tight game. It's worth considering that our model expects a combined total of about 41.5 points, so there's a good chance this bet could hit.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Hawthorn Hawks Head to Head (+100)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
For the Hawthorn Hawks to win tonight, they need to outperform the Brisbane Lions, who have been on a roll lately. The Lions have won 9 of their last 10 games and have been beating teams by an average of over 31 points. They've also been scoring nearly 50 points before half-time in their recent matches, which shows they come out strong.
However, the game is pretty close, and the Hawks will play at home, which can give them a boost. Both teams are competing hard, and the Hawks have a chance to surprise the Lions. The biggest risk is that Brisbane has been so dominant lately, so it won't be easy for Hawthorn to pull this off.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Noah Answerth Over 11.5 Disposals (-110)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Noah Answerth has been in great form lately, and the Brisbane Lions are on fire, winning 9 out of their last 10 games. They've been dominating, winning by an average of over 31 points in their recent matches. This makes it likely that Answerth will see plenty of the ball, especially since the Lions often take control early, averaging almost 50 points before half-time.
Betting on Answerth to get over 11.5 disposals looks promising. However, one risk is that if Hawthorn puts up a strong fight, it might limit his chances to rack up those disposals. Still, with Brisbane's recent success and Answerth's good form, this bet feels like a smart choice.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Bailey Macdonald Over 10.5 Disposals (-115)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Bailey Macdonald has shown he can be a solid player for the Brisbane Lions, especially since his team has been on fire, winning 9 of their last 10 games. They have been dominating their matches, often leading by over 30 points, which means they are likely to have plenty of chances to move the ball around. Macdonald also benefits from his teammates creating space and opportunities for him to get involved.
However, one risk is that Hawthorn can be tough to break down at times, and they might limit the number of disposals he gets. Still, with Brisbane's recent scoring and ball movement, betting on Macdonald to have over 10.5 disposals seems a smart move. The Lions' strong offensive game should give him enough opportunities to meet this target.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Conor McKenna Over 0.5 Goals (-128)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions are on fire, winning 9 of their last 10 games and scoring an average of nearly 50 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. With Conor McKenna in the mix, the team has a really good chance to get at least one goal against Hawthorn. They've shown they can dominate, often finishing games with big margins, so McKenna should have plenty of chances.
However, the biggest risk is that Hawthorn is also a solid team at home. Still, with Brisbane's recent form, it feels like McKenna will find the score sheet. Betting on him to score over 0.5 goals seems like a smart move given how well Brisbane has been playing lately.
That is the full board for this game. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.