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The latest Bet Better model pick for Noah Answerth is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 75%, implied 71%, edge +12.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
AFL

Noah Answerth

Brisbane Lions

+12.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+12.1% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 24°C (May 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
84 in 100
Predicted
14.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 83.5% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +12.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals83.5%74.6%71.4%1.34+12.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Noah Answerth Over 9.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Noah Answerth needs to register over 9.5 disposals for the Brisbane Lions against the Adelaide Crows tonight. Our numbers show he is a strong favorite to hit this mark, as he has been performing well on the field lately. He's getting plenty of opportunities, and the conditions at the Gabba should help him get involved in the game. One risk to consider is how closely matched these teams are overall, which can sometimes lead to tighter games. However, given Answerth's recent stats, he seems likely to find enough chances to meet and surpass that target. It's a good bet, but remember, nothing is guaranteed in sports!

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Pick History & Track Record

Noah Answerth's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 9.5

Noah Answerth's disposals line is 9.5.

Disposals 11.5

Noah Answerth's disposals line is 11.5.

Disposals 10.5

Noah Answerth's disposals line is 10.5.

Season averages (2024)

Noah Answerth averaged 12.3 disposals, 0.0 goals and 3.4 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

12.3
Disposals
0.0
Goals
3.4
Marks
4.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Noah Answerth has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.590%
o10.580%
o11.580%
o12.550%
o13.530%
o14.520%
o15.520%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.510%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Noah Answerth is averaging 11.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

11.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Noah Answerth recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans15063
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats20088
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS130211
7 Sep 24Carlton6026
24 Aug 24Essendon18034
14 Jun 24St Kilda4020
7 Jun 24Western Bulldogs2002
26 May 24Hawthorn12033
18 May 24Richmond11033
5 May 24Gold Coast SUNS0000
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Noah Answerth (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Noah Answerth is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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