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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Macdonald is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 69 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 69%, implied 75%, edge +6.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Macdonald

Hawthorn

+6.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 1.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+6.0% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 11°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
81 in 100
Predicted
3.2 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 81.2% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +6.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks81.2%68.9%75.2%1.45+6.0%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Bailey Macdonald Over 1.5 Marks (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Macdonald has a solid chance to grab over 1.5 marks in this game at Optus Stadium. Fremantle is getting the ball inside 50 about 8.1 more times than Hawthorn on average in their last ten games, which means there will likely be plenty of chances for Macdonald to make those marks. Plus, Fremantle has won 7 of their last 10 matches, so they'll be motivated to keep the momentum going. However, Hawthorn is also in good form, having won 7 of their last 10 games too. This means the contest could be pretty close, and the pressure might be on Macdonald to perform. Still, the overall situation and Fremantle's scoring opportunities make this a promising pick. Let's see how it goes!

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Bailey Macdonald - AFL Disposals market.

MarksSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Bailey Macdonald - AFL Marks market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 1.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Macdonald (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Macdonald is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.0% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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