Blake Hardwick (Hawthorn) Over 14.5 Disposals (-179)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Blake Hardwick is a strong play to clear 14.5 disposals at the MCG on Saturday, with the model projecting 19.7 — a 5.2-disposal buffer above the line that generates a 19.6% edge against the implied 64.1% probability baked into the $1.56 price. The case is straightforward: in his last five home games, Hardwick is averaging 20.6 disposals, hitting this line at a 4/5 clip, and his kicks alone (14.6 per game at home) are essentially matching the total on offer. His disposal efficiency of 88.2% at home tells you he's not just accumulating — he's winning the ball cleanly and recycling it, which coaches reward with continued use. The one note of caution is his L5 average against Brisbane specifically sits at 15.8 overall and a softer 13.6 at home, so this matchup carries a slight drag. But the model's projection and his broader home-ground dominance comfortably outweigh that concern.
Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jarman Impey's home form makes this line look soft. At the MCG over his last five home games, Impey is averaging 28.4 disposals — a full 8.9 above the 19.5 mark — with his kicks alone averaging 19.8 and metres gained sitting at a massive 574.8 per game. That's a player who genuinely feasts on his home deck, and the hit rate backs it up: he's cleared 19.5 disposals in 13 of his last 20 home games, a 65% strike rate against a bookmaker implied probability of just 53.5%. The model projects 22.8 disposals with an 18% edge, which is a meaningful gap worth acting on. Even against Brisbane specifically, Impey averages 21 disposals at home across the last five meetings. His overall L5 numbers (20.0) look modest, but strip out the away games and the picture sharpens considerably. The home ground advantage here is real and quantifiable.
Josh Ward (Hawthorn) Over 20.5 Disposals (-119)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Josh Ward at home is a different beast to his overall numbers, and that split is doing a lot of work here. His L5 home disposals average sits at 23.2 — well clear of the 20.5 line — and he's cleared that mark in 9 of his last 11 home games, an 82% hit rate that gives the model's projection of 23.8 real credibility. The 17.5% edge against a 54.3% implied probability at $1.84 is meaningful, not marginal. What drives those home numbers is the balance in his game — 10.8 kicks and 12.4 handballs per game at home, with 309.4 metres gained and a tidy 77.5% disposal efficiency suggesting he's not just accumulating garbage touches. His contested possession work (8.4 at home) shows he earns his ball in traffic. Brisbane has held him to 21.3 overall in five meetings, but at the MCG in his last five home outings, he's consistently outperformed that. The edge is real.
Josh Ward (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-164)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Josh Ward is one of the most reliable disposal accumulators in the competition, and the MCG at home is where he does his best work. His L5 home games average of 23.2 disposals sits 3.7 clear of this 19.5 line, and the model projects him at 23.8 — a 15.4% edge against the implied 62.1% probability baked into the $1.61. That's a meaningful gap between what the market is pricing and what the data suggests. The home context is crucial here. Ward's L5 home disposal average of 23.2 comfortably outstrips his overall L5 mark of 20.8, and the hit rate backs it up — he's cleared 19.5 in 10 of his last 11 home games. His contested possession work (8.4 at home) and metres gained (309.4) show he's not just accumulating cheap touches, either. Brisbane can be porous through the middle, and Ward should find plenty of it.
Jarman Impey (Hawthorn) Over 18.5 Disposals (-161)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jarman Impey at home is a genuinely different player, and the numbers make that case emphatically. His L5 home disposals average sits at 28.4 — nearly ten touches above this 18.5 line — with 19.8 kicks and 574.8 metres gained per game telling you he's not just accumulating cheaply. The model projects 22.8 disposals, a 4.3-touch buffer over the line, generating a 15.3% edge against the implied 61.7% probability baked into the $1.62. That's a meaningful gap worth acting on. The structural case holds up too. Impey's 74.9% disposal efficiency at home and 18.8 uncontested possessions suggest he's finding space and using it well, not just chasing the footy. His home hit rate over the last 20 is 13/20 (65%), and against Brisbane specifically he averages 21 disposals. At the MCG with the Hawks crowd behind him, this line looks soft.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
McKenna is in blistering touch and the numbers make a compelling case to back him kicking at least one goal against Hawthorn. His L5 away games average of 1.6 goals per game is well clear of this 0.5 line, and he's converting at a 66% accuracy rate away from home off 2.4 shots at goal — that's a forward in form who's finding the big sticks consistently. The model projects 1.1 goals, generating a 15.3% edge over the implied 56.2% probability baked into the $1.78 price. The hit rate backs it up hard. McKenna has cleared this line in 8 of his last 9 away games and is riding a three-game overall streak. The L5 away score involvements average of 5 confirms he's getting into the action regularly, not just stealing the odd lucky goal. There's genuine edge here at current odds.
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