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Model picks & player props
St. Louis Cardinals
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 11, 2:27AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Mon 30 Jun 2025, 10:40PM
2
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline +104

The model graded 2 markets for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $204 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 30 Jun 2025, 10:40PM at PNC Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win59.6%
The price says49.0%
Best price+104

St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates last met on Mon 30 Jun 2025. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 26 of 140 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 10
Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $690
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Masyn Winn SSDay-to-day
  • Peter Strzelecki RPOut
  • JJ Wetherholt 2BOut
  • Hunter Dobbins SPOut
  • Blaze Jordan 3BOut
  • Everson Pereira RFOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Braxton Ashcraft SPOut
  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Kirby Yates RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jared Jones SP
Availability updated Sep 10, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs St. Louis Cardinals L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs St. Louis Cardinals L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis CardinalsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
2.7runs we expect
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.6Home L53-2vs St. Louis Cardinals L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.4 runs/gm.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 2 betting markets for St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates — 2 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 2 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 1 graded call for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 4 of their last 5 games; St. Louis Cardinals have won 1 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2CHWAway
W9–3CHWAway
W1–0LAAHome
L1–6LAAHome
W1–0LAAHome
St. Louis Cardinals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2SFAway
L6–7SFAway
L4–5SFAway
L7–10COLAway
W10–8COLAway

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 4.2 runs per game (2-3) while St. Louis Cardinals are at 4.2 (1-4); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 4.2 for St. Louis Cardinals.

4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
4.2
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals
Runs / game4.24.2
Hits / game10.26.8
Home runs / game1.00.6
Walks drawn / game4.23.2
Batter K / game8.87.4
Earned runs allowed / game3.64.2
Pitching K / game5.65.8
Walks allowed / game2.43.6
L5 record2-31-4

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 4, St. Louis Cardinals won 6.

DatePittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis CardinalsWinner
Aug 3054Pittsburgh Pirates
Aug 2914St. Louis Cardinals
Aug 2962Pittsburgh Pirates
May 2162Pittsburgh Pirates
May 2070Pittsburgh Pirates
May 1969St. Louis Cardinals
Apr 30510St. Louis Cardinals
Apr 2945St. Louis Cardinals
Apr 28711St. Louis Cardinals
Apr 2724St. Louis Cardinals

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Braxton Ashcraft SPOUT
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Kirby Yates RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
St. Louis Cardinals
PlayerStatus
Masyn Winn SSDAY-TO-DAY
Peter Strzelecki RPOUT
JJ Wetherholt 2BOUT
Hunter Dobbins SPOUT
Blaze Jordan 3BOUT
Everson Pereira RFOUT
Max Rajcic RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals. Includes analysis on key players like Oneil Cruz. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals stats and odds.

Oneil Cruz (PIT) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-357)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Oneil Cruz for under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a good choice considering his recent performance data. His average stolen bases over the last five games, both overall and at home, are only 0.4 per game. This is less than the line of 0.5, indicating that he is statistically more likely to steal fewer than 0.5 bases in the game. Furthermore, when playing against the St. Louis Cardinals, his average stolen bases drop to zero. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, do not significantly enhance his chances of stealing bases. Thus, the under bet is statistically justified based on Cruz's recent performance.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cardinals vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Cardinals. The most recent game between them was Monday 30 June 2025 at PNC Park. The model has generated 2 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 51 meetings on record
Pittsburgh Pirates 26–25 across the last 51 meetings · these games average 7.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
30 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals4–5Pittsburgh Pirates
29 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals2–6Pittsburgh Pirates
28 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals4–1St. Louis Cardinals
21 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals2–6Pittsburgh Pirates
20 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals0–7Pittsburgh Pirates
19 May 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals9–6St. Louis Cardinals
30 Apr 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–10St. Louis Cardinals
29 Apr 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–5St. Louis Cardinals
28 Apr 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates7–11St. Louis Cardinals
27 Apr 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–4St. Louis Cardinals

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 51 meetings on file.

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