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Model picks & player props
Fremantle Dockers
VS
Sydney Swans

Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 12, 2:26AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
To Be Confirmed, Victoria
Outdoor
Mon 14 Sep 2026, 2:00AM
20
Game markets graded
20
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Fremantle Dockers 8.5 Spread -110

The model graded 40 markets for Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $191 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 14 Sep 2026, 2:00AM at To Be Confirmed.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win63.5%
The price says52.4%
Best price-110
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Fremantle Dockers 8.5 High63% chance -110
Moneyline Lean51% chance
Total Points High62% chance
Total Points High60% chance
Moneyline Lean48% chance
Team Total Points H1 High60% chance
Team Total Points Q1 Lean55% chance
Spread Lean56% chance
Disposals × 15 props Highup to 91%
Goals × 5 props Highup to 86%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Sydney Swans are the model's favourite to beat Fremantle Dockers, with a 51% chance to win. Predicted score: Sydney Swans 80.4 – Fremantle Dockers 84.8. Kick-off Mon 14 Sep, 2:00AM at To Be Confirmed. Best bet: Fremantle Dockers 8.5 at -110.
How they've been scoring this season
Fremantle DockersSydney Swans
Won-lost8-415-4
Points scored per game91.3111.7
Points allowed per game74.985.6
On the road / at home3-3 away9-1 at home
Last 5 gamesWLWLLWWWWW
Their games average 181.7 total points this season.
From the 12 Fremantle Dockers and 19 Sydney Swans games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 10 bookmakers compared
Winner
Dockers1.56-179PointsBet
Sydney Swans2.47+147Sportsbet

Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans odds by bookmaker

10 books · best price in green
BookDockers winSydney Swans win
Betfair Exchange1.51-1962.44+144
Betr1.53-1892.45+145
BetRight1.55-1822.45+145
Dabble1.55-1822.45+145
Ladbrokes1.55-1822.45+145
Neds1.55-1822.45+145
PlayUp1.55-1822.40+140
PointsBet1.56-1792.40+140
Sportsbet1.55-1822.47+147
TAB1.55-1822.45+145

Since the market opened: Sydney Swans to win opened 2.36, best now 2.47 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Fremantle Dockers
+8.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Fremantle DockersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Sydney SwansMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Fremantle DockersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total Points H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total Points Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Sydney SwansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Sydney Swans on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Sydney Swans
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Dockers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Swans

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 12 Sep

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Picks (Josh Treacy Key Factor): Odds Analysis & Top Props

On September 14, 2026 our model has run Fremantle Dockers at Sydney Swans and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Under 20.5 Team Total Points Q1 (-101), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Under 20.5 Team Total Points Q1 (-101)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For the Sydney Swans to win, the Fremantle Dockers need to score under 20.5 points in the first quarter. This is a reasonable expectation since Fremantle has been strong lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games and averaging just under 20 points for the first half in their recent matches. However, the risk is that both teams are closely matched, and the Swans will be looking to start strong at home. With the combined expected total around 19.2 points, this bet feels like a fair chance for a solid start. Let's see if Fremantle can hold back their scoring early on!

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Under 42.5 Team Total Points H1 (-119)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For this bet to work, Fremantle needs to score less than 42.5 points in the first half against the Sydney Swans. Considering Fremantle's recent form, they've been doing well, averaging almost 45 points before half-time over their last 12 matches. However, our numbers suggest they might fall short tonight, predicting a combined total closer to 38.5 points. Fremantle has won 7 of their last 10 games, but they are facing a tough challenge on the road. The Swans are known for their strong defense, which could make it hard for Fremantle to keep up their scoring pace. Remember, the biggest risk here is that both teams are evenly matched lately, so it might be a close call.

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Sydney Swans Head to Head (+147)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Sydney Swans to win are looking pretty good at +147. Our numbers show this matchup is nearly even, but Sydney has a slight advantage, especially considering their home ground. Fremantle has been strong in the final quarter, scoring an average of 29.2 points, which makes them a tough opponent late in the game. However, Fremantle has struggled a bit in the second quarter with an average of just 16.2 points in their last 10 matches. If Sydney can capitalize on that and get ahead early, they might just hold on for the win. It's a close call, but the Swans have what it takes to pull this off.

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Patrick Voss Over 9.5 Disposals (-118)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on a roll, winning seven of their last ten games and dominating by an average of nearly 29 points. Patrick Voss is playing well at Optus Stadium, managing around 4.6 handballs per game. His consistent performance suggests he can handle the pressure and get more than 9.5 disposals. However, one concern is that Voss has averaged less than one goal assist per game. Still, with Fremantle's strong offense, Voss should see plenty of opportunities to rack up those disposals. It looks like a solid chance for him to go over that mark.

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Karl Worner Over 17.5 Disposals (-119)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on a roll lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games and dominating their matches by an impressive average of nearly 29 points. Karl Worner has been a key player in this success, especially at Optus Stadium, where he averages over 20 disposals in his games. With Fremantle's strong form and Worner's consistent performance, it looks good for him to go over 17.5 disposals. However, Sydney Swans can be tough at home, so Worner's performance may face some challenges. Still, with Fremantle's current momentum and Worner's skills, this bet has a solid chance of hitting. Let's see if he can keep up his strong numbers!

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Brennan Cox Over 9.5 Disposals (-167)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brennan Cox has been playing really well lately, and Fremantle has won 7 of their last 10 games. They have shown a strong performance by scoring an average of 28.7 points more than their opponents in their last 12 matches. This suggests that Cox will have plenty of opportunities to rack up disposals as the team continues to push forward. Betting on Cox to get over 9.5 disposals looks promising given his team's recent form. The biggest risk here is that Sydney Swans are also a solid team, which could make it tougher for Cox to reach that number. However, with Fremantle's strong start and Cox's current momentum, he should have a good chance to get those disposals.

That is the full board for this game. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 12 Sep

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Same Game Multi picks Top SGM: Our Expert Analysis

On Saturday 12 September 2026, Sydney Swans play Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) Over 11.5 Disposals, priced at -588 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) Over 11.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) Over 12.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) Over 12.5 Disposals. It was priced at -357 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 13.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 13.5 Disposals. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Sydney Swans v Fremantle Dockers. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Matthew Johnson Fremantle Disposals
Karl Worner Fremantle Disposals
Patrick Voss Fremantle Disposals
Brennan Cox Fremantle Disposals
Josh Treacy Fremantle Disposals

+ 20 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

1 market live
MoneylineSydney Swans to win+147
51%model win %
+51.4Sydney Swans margin (L5)
Model pickSydney Swans to winSydney Swans PF/G127.6Fremantle Dockers PF/G89.6Sydney Swans vs opp (L5)0-5

Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans on Sep 14 - Moneyline: the model's pick is Sydney Swans to win at +147, a 51% model win % (LEAN). Over their last five games Sydney Swans average 127.6 points and Fremantle Dockers 89.6.

Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans — what the model found

Our model graded 40 betting markets for Fremantle Dockers at Sydney Swans — 20 on the game itself and 20 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
20
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 40 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 39 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans — recent results

Sydney Swans have won 5 of their last 5 games; Fremantle Dockers have won 0 of their last 0.

Sydney Swans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W141–88BLHome
W123–70NMFCHome
W112–76ESSAway
W167–70PORTHome
W107–88STKAway

Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans — where the money went

Since betting opened on Fremantle Dockers at Sydney Swans, the market has moved away from Sydney Swans across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Spread — Sydney Swans 8.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Fremantle Dockers -8.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 183.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 183.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans — model preview

Sydney Swans v Fremantle Dockers, 12 September 2026. Top of the list: Josh Treacy (Fremantle) Over 1.5 Goals. Our model likes 6 bets in this game.

On September 14, 2026 our model has run Fremantle Dockers at Sydney Swans and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Under 20.5 Team Total Points Q1 (-101), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Dockers vs Swans, or as Swans vs Dockers. The next scheduled game is Monday 14 September 2026 at To Be Confirmed. The model has generated 20 game picks and 20 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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