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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Treacy is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 62%, implied 63%, edge +10.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL

Josh Treacy

Fremantle

+10.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -172 (1.58) · $100→$158
+10.3% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
12.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.6% · the book's price implies 63.3% · gap +10.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.6%61.8%63.3%1.62+10.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Josh Treacy Over 9.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Josh Treacy is playing at home in Optus Stadium, which often gives players a boost. His recent stats show he's been getting a lot of disposals, and our numbers think he has a good chance to get over 9.5 in this game. He's been strong in his role, and it looks like he's ready to make an impact against Geelong. One thing to keep in mind is that the Geelong Cats can be tough to break down, meaning Treacy might face some solid defense. Still, his ability to rack up disposals has been impressive lately. With the home crowd behind him, this could be a great spot for him to shine.

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Pick History & Track Record

Josh Treacy's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 9.5
-112 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 5 of the last 10 gamesHow many disposals does Josh Treacy average?

Josh Treacy's disposals line is 9.5, best over price -112 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

Goals 1.5
How many disposals does Josh Treacy average?

Josh Treacy's goals line is 1.5.

Season averages (2024)

Josh Treacy averaged 12.1 disposals, 2.3 goals and 6.1 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

12.1
Disposals
2.3
Goals
6.1
Marks
2.2
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Josh Treacy has cleared 9.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.570%
o10.550%
o11.550%
o12.540%
o13.530%
o14.510%
o15.510%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Josh Treacy is averaging 10.0 disposals per game over his last 5 and 11.6 in home games.

10.0
Disp · Overall
11.6
Disp · Home
2.0
Goals · Overall
2.0
Goals · Home

Recent game log

In his most recent game (4 Aug 24 vs Essendon), Josh Treacy recorded 9 disposals and 3 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
4 Aug 24Essendon9351
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles11351
21 Jul 24Melbourne183122
13 Jul 24Hawthorn10153
6 Jul 24Richmond16590
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans13241
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS12272
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs9265
2 Jun 24Melbourne183111
24 May 24Collingwood12132
Quick answers:How many disposals does Josh Treacy average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 1.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 1.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 1.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Goals — — — Pending
14 Aug 26 Adelaide Crows @ Fremantle Dockers Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Treacy (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Treacy is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.3% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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