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Model picks & player props
Brisbane Lions
VS
Sydney Swans

Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 6:10AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
SCG, Sydney
Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 5:15AM
11
Game markets graded
30
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Sydney Swans Moneyline -263

The model graded 41 markets for Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $138 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 5 Sep 2026, 5:15AM at SCG.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win81.5%
The price says72.5%
Best price-263
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Sydney Swans High82% chance -263
Team Total Points H1 Lean50% chance —
Team Total Points H1 Lean48% chance —
Team Total Points Q1 Lean46% chance —
Goals × 3 props Highup to 86% —
Disposals × 19 props Highup to 76% —
Tackles × 2 props Highup to 72% —
Clearances × 2 props Highup to 84% —
Marks × 3 props Highup to 77% —
Kicks × 1 prop Highup to 70% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every AFL game on today's board →

Brisbane Lions and Sydney Swans last met on Sat 5 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every AFL game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Sydney Swans
-263
+ 10 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Sydney SwansMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total Points H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total Points H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total Points Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Swans

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 5 Sep

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Picks: Full Match Breakdown & Bets

On Saturday 5 September 2026, Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 11.5 Disposals, priced at -278 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 11.5 Disposals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -278 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) Over 2.5 player_clearances_over (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) Over 2.5 player_clearances_over. It was priced at -156 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) Over 12.5 Disposals (-175)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) Over 12.5 Disposals. It was priced at -175 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Darcy Gardiner (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals (-182)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Darcy Gardiner (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals. It was priced at -182 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 10.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 10.5 Disposals. It was priced at -455 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Noah Answerth (Brisbane Lions) Over 11.5 Disposals (-182)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Noah Answerth (Brisbane Lions) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -182 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 5 Sep

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Same Game Multi picks Value Multi: Our Expert Analysis

On Saturday 5 September 2026, Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 10.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 10.5 Disposals. It was priced at -455 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Conor McKenna Brisbane Lions Goals
James Rowbottom Sydney Swans Disposals
Tom Papley Sydney Swans Disposals
Caiden Cleary Sydney Swans Disposals
Jake Lloyd Sydney Swans Disposals

+ 30 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans — what the model found

Our model graded 41 betting markets for Brisbane Lions at Sydney Swans — 11 on the game itself and 30 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

11
Game markets graded
30
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 41 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 40 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans — recent results

Sydney Swans have won 5 of their last 5 games; Brisbane Lions have won 3 of their last 5.

Sydney Swans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W141–88BLHome
W123–70NMFCHome
W112–76ESSAway
W167–70PORTHome
W107–88STKAway
Brisbane Lions — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L88–141SYDAway
W159–96COLLAway
W95–53SUNSHome
W125–58HAWHome
L78–154CARLAway

Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Sydney Swans won 1, Brisbane Lions won 1.

DateSydney SwansBrisbane LionsWinner
Sep 514188Sydney Swans
Jun 2583126Brisbane Lions

Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans — model preview

Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions, 5 September 2026. Top of the list: Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 11.5 Disposals. Our model likes 6 bets in this game.

On Saturday 5 September 2026, Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 11.5 Disposals, priced at -278 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 11.5 Disposals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sydney Swans play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Harris Andrews (Brisbane Lions) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -278 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
05 Sep 26 Team Total Points H1 Over 40.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Team Total Points Q1 Over 20.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Team Total Points H1 Over 39.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Lions vs Swans, or as Swans vs Lions. The most recent game between them was Saturday 5 September 2026 at SCG. The model has generated 11 game picks and 30 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Even at 1–1 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
5 Sep 2026Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans141–88Sydney Swans
25 Jun 2026Sydney Swans @ Brisbane Lions126–83Brisbane Lions

Playing fantasy? AFL fantasy projections for this round — the same model, scored your way.

Today's selected board

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