James Rowbottom (Sydney Swans) Under 19.5 Disposals (-114)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Rowbottom is one of the more compelling unders plays on the card this week. The model has him at just 15.3 disposals — a 4.2-disposal gap below the 19.5 line — generating a 19.6% edge against a market sitting at 53.2% implied probability. That's a meaningful discrepancy, and the underlying numbers justify it completely.
At the SCG across his last five home games, Rowbottom is averaging just 15.4 disposals, with a kicks-to-handballs split of 9.4 and 6.0 respectively — nothing in those figures suggests a 20-disposal ceiling is realistic. Against Brisbane specifically at home, he's averaging 16.2, and his L5 overall sits at 15.0. The clincher is the hit rate: he's gone under this line in nine consecutive home games and 15 of his last 17 overall. That kind of consistency isn't noise. At $1.88, this is a well-supported edge worth backing.