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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Lloyd is Under 18.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 64%, implied 56%, edge +14.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 4:50AM UTC
AFL

Jake Lloyd

Sydney Swans

+14.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 18.5 -127 (1.79) · $100→$179
+14.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
15.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.2% · the book's price implies 55.9% · gap +14.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.2%63.9%55.9%1.92+14.4%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions: Jake Lloyd Under 18.5 Disposals (-127)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jake Lloyd has been a bit quiet lately, and our numbers think he might struggle again in this game. The stats show he usually gets fewer disposals than the 18.5 line set for him, with our data suggesting he might only grab around 17. This gives a good chance for the under to hit. The risk here is that both teams are closely matched, which can sometimes lead to unexpected player performances. Still, with the way Lloyd has been playing recently, betting on him to get under 18.5 disposals seems like a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jake Lloyd averaged 19.7 disposals, 0.2 goals and 6.4 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.

19.7
Disposals
0.2
Goals
6.4
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Jake Lloyd recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions19072
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide20191
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS321143
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows17073
16 Aug 24Essendon21053
9 Aug 24Collingwood18061
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide16042
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs25084
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions14140
13 Jul 24North Melbourne24063
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ Essendon Bombers Goals 0.5 Over -103 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jake Lloyd (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Lloyd is Under 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 5 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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