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Model picks & player props
Washington Nationals
VS
Chicago Cubs

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 10:02AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sat 6 Sep 2025, 6:20PM
20
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 11.5 Total Runs -263

The model graded 26 markets for Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $138 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 6 Sep 2025, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win91.9%
The price says72.5%
Best price-263
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 11.5 High92% chance -263
Total Runs High63% chance
Total Runs High96% chance
Team Total High61% chance
Team Total High99% chance
Total Runs Lean50% chance
Team Total High99% chance
Total Runs High98% chance
Team Total High96% chance
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 79%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 3 props Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 80%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs last met on Sat 6 Sep 2025. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 77 of 124 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 8
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
15.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Washington Nationals

  • Orlando Ribalta RPOut
  • Matt Waldron RPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jackson Kent SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Kevin Gausman SP
Availability updated Sep 9, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Ian Happ CHC Batter - Hits
Jacob Young WSN Batter - Stolen Bases
Michael Busch CHC Batter - Hits
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Batter - Stolen Bases
Nico Hoerner CHC Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Washington Nationals L52-3

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Washington Nationals L52-3

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Washington NationalsNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
1.3runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Washington Nationals L52-3

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 26 betting markets for Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 26 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 25 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 1 of their last 5 games; Washington Nationals have won 0 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L6–8MILAway
L3–4MILAway
L3–4MILAway
L3–10MIAAway
W6–5MIAAway
Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–5SDAway
L2–9SDAway
L5–7LADAway
L2–3SDAway
L5–6LADAway

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 3, Washington Nationals won 3.

DateChicago CubsWashington NationalsWinner
Aug 1307Washington Nationals
Aug 12126Chicago Cubs
Aug 1186Chicago Cubs
Mar 2936Washington Nationals
Mar 28102Chicago Cubs
Mar 26410Washington Nationals

Who’s out or in doubt

22 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Dansby Swanson SSOUT
Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
Orlando Ribalta RPOUT
Matt Waldron RPOUT
Connelly Early SPOUT
Drew Millas COUT
Josiah Gray SPOUT
Richard Lovelady RPOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals. Includes analysis on key players like Ian Happ. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals stats and odds.

Ian Happ (CHC) Over 0.5 Hits (-222)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Ian Happ's performance data suggests a strong likelihood of him hitting over 0.5 in the upcoming game. His recent batting averages show a consistent record of hits, with an overall average of 2.2 hits in the last five games. At home, his average is slightly lower at 1.8, but still comfortably above the 0.5 line. Furthermore, his plate appearances average at 4.8, both overall and at home, indicating he gets ample opportunities to bat. Against the Washington Nationals, his hit average is 1, again above the betting line. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, further reinforce his consistent performance. All these statistics suggest that Happ is likely to hit over 0.5 in the upcoming game.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Nationals vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Nationals. The most recent game between them was Saturday 6 September 2025 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 26 meetings on record
Chicago Cubs 15–11 across the last 26 meetings · these games average 9.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
13 Aug 2026Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals7–0Washington Nationals
12 Aug 2026Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals6–12Chicago Cubs
11 Aug 2026Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals6–8Chicago Cubs
29 Mar 2026Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs3–6Washington Nationals
28 Mar 2026Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs10–2Chicago Cubs
26 Mar 2026Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs4–10Washington Nationals
7 Sep 2025Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs3–6Washington Nationals
6 Sep 2025Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs1–2Washington Nationals
5 Sep 2025Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs11–5Chicago Cubs
5 Jun 2025Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals1–7Chicago Cubs

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 26 meetings on file.

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