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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 11, 8:21AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Chase Field, Phoenix
Indoor
Wed 23 Jul 2025, 7:40PM
2
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline +384

The model graded 2 markets for Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $484 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 23 Jul 2025, 7:40PM at Chase Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win36.3%
The price says20.7%
Best price+384

Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks last met on Wed 23 Jul 2025. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 27 of 145 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 10
Cam Smith Over 0.5
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Arizona DiamondbacksMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Steven Okert RPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Cristian Javier SP

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Corbin Carroll RFDay-to-day
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut
Availability updated Sep 11, 1:27AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineArizona DiamondbacksNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L51-4Free board13-12

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineArizona Diamondbacks run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L51-4

Arizona Diamondbacks spread form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

Arizona Diamondbacks total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsArizona Diamondbacks team totalNo line posted
1.2runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L51-4

Arizona Diamondbacks team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks — what the model found

Our model graded 2 betting markets for Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks — 2 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 2 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 1 graded call for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent results

Arizona Diamondbacks have won 3 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 3 of their last 5.

Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–5KCAway
W5–3KCAway
W5–4KCAway
W3–2HOUAway
L1–3HOUAway
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1PHIAway
L7–11PHIAway
W6–5PHIAway
L2–3ARIHome
W3–1ARIHome

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 4.6 runs per game (2-3) while Houston Astros are at 3.4 (4-1); Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers are allowing 4.6 earned runs per game versus 1.2 for Houston Astros.

4.6
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
3.4
Houston Astros runs/G
Last 5 gamesArizona DiamondbacksHouston Astros
Runs / game4.63.4
Hits / game7.47.8
Home runs / game1.20.4
Walks drawn / game3.81.8
Batter K / game9.26.4
Earned runs allowed / game4.61.2
Pitching K / game9.06.0
Walks allowed / game2.21.6
L5 record2-34-1

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Arizona Diamondbacks won 2, Houston Astros won 1.

DateArizona DiamondbacksHouston AstrosWinner
Sep 632Arizona Diamondbacks
Sep 513Houston Astros
Sep 543Arizona Diamondbacks

Who’s out or in doubt

11 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Corbin Carroll RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryne Nelson SPOUT
Ryan Thompson RPOUT
A.J. Puk RPOUT
Andrew Saalfrank RPOUT
Cristian Mena RPOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Steven Okert RPOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Diamondbacks, or as Diamondbacks vs Astros. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 23 July 2025 at Chase Field. The model has generated 2 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 12 meetings on record
Houston Astros 10–2 across the last 12 meetings · these games average 7.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Sep 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros2–3Arizona Diamondbacks
5 Sep 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros3–1Houston Astros
4 Sep 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros3–1Houston Astros
23 Jul 2025Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks3–4Houston Astros
22 Jul 2025Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–3Houston Astros
21 Jul 2025Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks3–6Houston Astros
8 Sep 2024Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros6–12Arizona Diamondbacks
7 Sep 2024Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros11–5Houston Astros
6 Sep 2024Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros8–0Houston Astros
1 Oct 2023Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–8Houston Astros

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 12 meetings on file.

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