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Model picks & player props
Cleveland Guardians
VS
Chicago Cubs

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 11, 3:16AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Fri 4 Jul 2025, 12:05AM
0
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 26 of 140 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 10
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Player props & full board
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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Cleveland Guardians

  • Colin Holderman RPOut
  • Rhys Hoskins 1BOut
  • Shawn Armstrong RPOut

Chicago Cubs

  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut
Availability updated Sep 4, 8:01PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Batter - Stolen Bases
Nico Hoerner CHC Batter - Stolen Bases
Kyle Tucker CHC Batter - Stolen Bases
Dansby Swanson CHC Batter - Stolen Bases
Nolan Jones CLE Batter - Stolen Bases

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Cleveland Guardians L52-3

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Cleveland Guardians L52-3

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland GuardiansNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
2.6runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Cleveland Guardians L52-3

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 6 betting markets for Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs — 0 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 6 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 5 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 1 of their last 5 games; Cleveland Guardians have won 2 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L6–8MILAway
L3–4MILAway
L3–4MILAway
L3–10MIAAway
W6–5MIAAway
Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L5–9BALAway
W9–5BALAway
L4–6BALAway
W3–2DETHome
L0–6DETHome

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 3, Cleveland Guardians won 2.

DateChicago CubsCleveland GuardiansWinner
Apr 510Chicago Cubs
Apr 556Cleveland Guardians
Apr 314Cleveland Guardians
Mar 1752Chicago Cubs
Feb 2786Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Dansby Swanson SSOUT
Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Colin Holderman RPOUT
Rhys Hoskins 1BOUT
Shawn Armstrong RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Winning baseball bets for Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians? We break down odds and insights. Featuring picks like NA props. Explore same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.

Nico Hoerner (CHC) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-417)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The 'Under 0.5' bet for Nico Hoerner in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a solid choice based on his recent performance data. Hoerner's last five overall and home games show an average of zero stolen bases, implying a low likelihood of achieving a stolen base in the upcoming game. Additionally, his average caught stealing (Cs) rate is higher than his stolen base average, indicating a riskier base-stealing strategy. Even when playing against the Cleveland Guardians, his stolen base average is below the line set for this bet. Despite his impressive hit streaks, they don't necessarily translate into stolen bases. Therefore, based on these statistics, it's reasonable to expect Hoerner to have fewer than 0.5 stolen bases in the upcoming game.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Guardians vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Guardians. The most recent game between them was Friday 4 July 2025 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 19 meetings on record
Chicago Cubs 12–7 across the last 19 meetings · these games average 8.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
5 Apr 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians0–1Chicago Cubs
3 Apr 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians4–1Cleveland Guardians
17 Mar 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians2–5Chicago Cubs
16 Mar 2026Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians2–5Chicago Cubs
27 Feb 2026Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago Cubs8–6Chicago Cubs
3 Jul 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago Cubs1–0Chicago Cubs
2 Jul 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago Cubs5–4Chicago Cubs
1 Jul 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago Cubs5–2Chicago Cubs
10 Mar 2025Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians4–7Chicago Cubs
1 Mar 2025Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago Cubs7–4Chicago Cubs

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 19 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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