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Model picks & player props
Carlos Alcaraz
VS
Tommy Paul

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 3:58AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Tennis
Sun 6 Sep 2026, 6:00PM
18
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 35 Total Games +107

The model graded 19 markets for Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul (Tennis) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $207 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 6 Sep 2026, 6:00PM.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win48.6%
The price says46.5%
Best price+107
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Games Under 35 Lean49% chance +107
Total Games Lean52% chance —
Total Games Lean50% chance —
Total Games Lean56% chance —
Total Games Lean57% chance —
Set 1 Total Games High73% chance —
Set 1 Total Games High90% chance —
Set 1 Game Handicap High64% chance —
Spread Lean40% chance —
Moneyline × 1 prop Highup to 86% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Tennis game on today's board →

Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul last met on Sun 6 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every Tennis game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Under 35 · $100 returned $207

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Games
Under
37
-120
+ 17 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSet 1 Game HandicapThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Carlos Alcaraz

Player availability is not tracked for Tennis on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Tommy Paul

Player availability is not tracked for Tennis on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul: Tennis weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Tennis on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Moneyline

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total GamesTommy Paul vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
63%model under %
1.89fair price
PickUnder 37Model62.9%Fair1.89Odds-120

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz — Total Games (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Under 37 at -120, fair price 1.89; our model makes it 62.9% (LEAN). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Game HandicapTommy Paul vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
2.30fair price
PickTommy Paul 5.5Model49.0%Fair2.30Odds+110

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz — Game Handicap (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Tommy Paul 5.5 at +110, fair price 2.30; our model makes it 49.0% (LONG-SHOT). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 1 Total GamesTommy Paul vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
82%model under %
1.26fair price
PickUnder 12.5Model81.7%Fair1.26Odds-667

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz — Set 1 Total Games (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Under 12.5 at -667, fair price 1.26; our model makes it 81.7% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 1 Game HandicapTommy Paul vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
69%model cover %
1.59fair price
PickTommy Paul 2.5Model68.8%Fair1.59Odds-208

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz — Set 1 Game Handicap (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Tommy Paul 2.5 at -208, fair price 1.59; our model makes it 68.8% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Carlos Alcaraz @ Tommy Paul — what the model found

Our model graded 19 betting markets for Carlos Alcaraz at Tommy Paul — 18 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

18
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 19 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 18 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
14
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
06 Sep 26 Total Games Under 37 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Set 1 Game Handicap Tommy Paul 2.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Under 12.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Spread Tommy Paul +6.5 ✗ MISS
06 Sep 26 Spread Tommy Paul +5.5 ✗ MISS
06 Sep 26 Spread Tommy Paul +4.5 ✗ MISS
06 Sep 26 Spread Tommy Paul +5 ✗ MISS
06 Sep 26 Total Games Under 35 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Games Under 35.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Games Under 36 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 26 Total Games Under 37.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul in the Tennis. You may also see this matchup written as Alcaraz vs Paul, or as Paul vs Alcaraz. The most recent game between them was Sunday 6 September 2026. The model has generated 18 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Tennis betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Completed matches · last 7 meetings
Carlos Alcaraz 5–2 across the last 7 meetings
DateWinnerScoreTournamentSurface
25 Jan 2026Carlos Alcaraz7-6 6-4 7-5Australian Open · 4th RoundHard
3 Jun 2025Carlos Alcaraz6-0 6-1 6-4French Open · QuarterfinalsClay
9 Jul 2024Carlos Alcaraz5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2Wimbledon · QuarterfinalsGrass
17 Aug 2023Carlos Alcaraz7-6 6-7 6-3Western & Southern Financial Group Masters · 3rd RoundHard
12 Aug 2023Tommy Paul6-3 4-6 6-3Canadian Open · QuarterfinalsHard
28 Mar 2023Carlos Alcaraz6-4 6-4Miami Open · 4th RoundHard
10 Aug 2022Tommy Paul6-7 7-6 6-3Canadian Open · 2nd RoundHard
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