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Model picks & player props
Carlos Alcaraz
VS
Jaime Faria

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaime Faria Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:46AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Tennis
Thu 3 Sep 2026, 12:10AM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
75.0%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 31.5 Total Games +120

The model graded 20 markets for Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaime Faria (Tennis) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $220 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 75.0% across 24 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 3 Sep 2026, 12:10AM.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win56.6%
The price says41.6%
Best price+120
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Games Under 31.5 Lean57% chance +120
Total Games High63% chance —
Total Games Lean56% chance —
Spread High61% chance —
Total Games Lean60% chance —
Total Games Lean42% chance —
Spread Lean44% chance —
Spread Lean57% chance —
Spread Lean57% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Tennis game on today's board →

Carlos Alcaraz and Jaime Faria last met on Thu 3 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every Tennis game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Carlos Alcaraz -8.5 · $100 returned $280

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Games
Under
29.5
+180
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSet 1 WinnerThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSet 2 WinnerThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Carlos Alcaraz

Player availability is not tracked for Tennis on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Jaime Faria

Player availability is not tracked for Tennis on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaime Faria: Tennis weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Tennis on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
Total GamesJaime Faria vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
68%model under %
1.96fair price
PickUnder 34.5Model68.3%Fair1.96Odds-120

Jaime Faria vs Carlos Alcaraz — Total Games (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Under 34.5 at -120, fair price 1.96; our model makes it 68.3% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Game HandicapJaime Faria vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
66%model cover %
1.98fair price
PickCarlos Alcaraz -6.5Model66.0%Fair1.98Odds-118

Jaime Faria vs Carlos Alcaraz — Game Handicap (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 at -118, fair price 1.98; our model makes it 66.0% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 1 Total GamesJaime Faria vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
84%model under %
1.29fair price
PickUnder 12.5Model84.1%Fair1.29Odds-588

Jaime Faria vs Carlos Alcaraz — Set 1 Total Games (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Under 12.5 at -588, fair price 1.29; our model makes it 84.1% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 1 WinnerJaime Faria vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
78%model win %
1.31fair price
PickCarlos Alcaraz set 1Model78.1%Fair1.31Odds-417

Jaime Faria vs Carlos Alcaraz — Set 1 Winner (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Carlos Alcaraz set 1 at -417, fair price 1.31; our model makes it 78.1% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 2 WinnerJaime Faria vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
78%model win %
1.31fair price
PickCarlos Alcaraz set 2Model78.1%Fair1.31Odds-417

Jaime Faria vs Carlos Alcaraz — Set 2 Winner (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Carlos Alcaraz set 2 at -417, fair price 1.31; our model makes it 78.1% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Carlos Alcaraz @ Jaime Faria — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Carlos Alcaraz at Jaime Faria — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 4 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
24
Total Picks
75.0%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
03 Sep 26 Set 2 Winner Carlos Alcaraz ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Set 1 Winner Carlos Alcaraz ✗ MISS
03 Sep 26 Spread Carlos Alcaraz -8.5 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Spread Carlos Alcaraz -7 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Spread Carlos Alcaraz -8 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Spread Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Under 12.5 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Total Games Under 29.5 ✗ MISS
03 Sep 26 Total Games Under 32 ✗ MISS
03 Sep 26 Total Games Under 34.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Under 9.5 ✗ MISS
02 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
02 Sep 26 Spread Carlos Alcaraz -6 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaime Faria in the Tennis. You may also see this matchup written as Alcaraz vs Faria, or as Faria vs Alcaraz. The most recent game between them was Thursday 3 September 2026. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 75.0% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Tennis betting strategy for this matchup.

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