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Model picks & player props
Carlos Alcaraz
VS
Roman Safiullin

Carlos Alcaraz vs Roman Safiullin Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 4:46AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Tennis
Mon 31 Aug 2026, 4:40PM
20
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 37.5 Total Games -108

The model graded 21 markets for Carlos Alcaraz vs Roman Safiullin (Tennis) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $193 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 31 Aug 2026, 4:40PM.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win68.2%
The price says50.0%
Best price-108
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Games Under 37.5 High68% chance -108
Total Games High69% chance —
Total Games High70% chance —
Total Games High67% chance —
Spread High70% chance —
Spread High66% chance —
Spread Lean54% chance —
Spread Lean58% chance —
Spread High63% chance —
Moneyline × 1 prop Highup to 89% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Tennis game on today's board →

Carlos Alcaraz and Roman Safiullin last met on Mon 31 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every Tennis game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Under 37.5 · $100 returned $191

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Games
Under
38
-118
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSet 1 WinnerThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlos AlcarazSet 2 WinnerThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Carlos Alcaraz

Player availability is not tracked for Tennis on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Roman Safiullin

Player availability is not tracked for Tennis on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Carlos Alcaraz vs Roman Safiullin: Tennis weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Tennis on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Moneyline

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total GamesRoman Safiullin vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
72%model under %
2.02fair price
PickUnder 37Model71.7%Fair2.02Odds-105

Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz — Total Games (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Under 37 at -105, fair price 2.02; our model makes it 71.7% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Game HandicapRoman Safiullin vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
69%model cover %
2.00fair price
PickCarlos Alcaraz -5.5Model69.3%Fair2.00Odds-110

Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz — Game Handicap (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Carlos Alcaraz -5.5 at -110, fair price 2.00; our model makes it 69.3% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 1 Total GamesRoman Safiullin vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
2.26fair price
PickUnder 9.5Model49.7%Fair2.26Odds+110

Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz — Set 1 Total Games (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Under 9.5 at +110, fair price 2.26; our model makes it 49.7% (LONG-SHOT). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 1 WinnerRoman Safiullin vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
75%model win %
1.48fair price
PickCarlos Alcaraz set 1Model75.0%Fair1.48Odds-263

Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz — Set 1 Winner (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Carlos Alcaraz set 1 at -263, fair price 1.48; our model makes it 75.0% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 2 WinnerRoman Safiullin vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
75%model win %
1.45fair price
PickCarlos Alcaraz set 2Model75.0%Fair1.45Odds-278

Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz — Set 2 Winner (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Carlos Alcaraz set 2 at -278, fair price 1.45; our model makes it 75.0% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Carlos Alcaraz @ Roman Safiullin — what the model found

Our model graded 21 betting markets for Carlos Alcaraz at Roman Safiullin — 20 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 21 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 20 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
12
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
31 Aug 26 Spread Carlos Alcaraz -5.5 ✓ HIT
31 Aug 26 Spread Carlos Alcaraz -5 ✓ HIT
31 Aug 26 Total Games Under 38 ✓ HIT
31 Aug 26 Total Games Under 37.5 ✓ HIT
31 Aug 26 Set 1 Total Games Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
31 Aug 26 Set 1 Total Games Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
31 Aug 26 Set 1 Total Games Under 12.5 ✓ HIT
31 Aug 26 Set 1 Total Games Under 9.5 ✗ MISS
31 Aug 26 Set 2 Winner Carlos Alcaraz ✓ HIT
31 Aug 26 Total Games Under 36.5 ✓ HIT
31 Aug 26 Total Games Under 37 ✓ HIT
31 Aug 26 Set 1 Winner Carlos Alcaraz ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Carlos Alcaraz vs Roman Safiullin in the Tennis. You may also see this matchup written as Alcaraz vs Safiullin, or as Safiullin vs Alcaraz. The most recent game between them was Monday 31 August 2026. The model has generated 20 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Tennis betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Completed matches · last 1 meeting
Roman Safiullin 1–0 across the last meeting
DateWinnerScoreTournamentSurface
31 Oct 2023Roman Safiullin6-3 6-4BNP Paribas Masters · 2nd RoundHard
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