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Model picks & player props
Tommy Paul
VS
Alexander Bublik

Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 5:28AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Tennis
Fri 4 Sep 2026, 4:10PM
20
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
57.1%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 38.5 Total Games +110

The model graded 21 markets for Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik (Tennis) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $210 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 57.1% across 21 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 4 Sep 2026, 4:10PM.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win56.9%
The price says44.0%
Best price+110
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Games Under 38.5 Lean57% chance +110
Total Games High67% chance —
Total Games Lean60% chance —
Spread Lean50% chance —
Total Games High61% chance —
Spread Long-shot39% chance —
Spread Lean53% chance —
Spread Lean56% chance —
Spread Lean48% chance —
Moneyline × 1 prop Long-shotup to 34% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Tennis game on today's board →

Tommy Paul and Alexander Bublik last met on Fri 4 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every Tennis game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Tommy Paul -5.5 · $100 returned $270

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Games
Under
41
-118
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 1 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSet 2 WinnerThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSet 1 WinnerThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Tommy Paul

Player availability is not tracked for Tennis on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Alexander Bublik

Player availability is not tracked for Tennis on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik: Tennis weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Tennis on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

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See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Moneyline

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total GamesAlexander Bublik vs Tommy PaulNo line posted
64%model under %
2.27fair price
PickUnder 38.5Model64.2%Fair2.27Odds+110

Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul — Total Games (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Under 38.5 at +110, fair price 2.27; our model makes it 64.2% (LEAN). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Game HandicapAlexander Bublik vs Tommy PaulNo line posted
63%model cover %
2.04fair price
PickTommy Paul -3Model63.2%Fair2.04Odds-102

Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul — Game Handicap (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Tommy Paul -3 at -102, fair price 2.04; our model makes it 63.2% (LEAN). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 1 Total GamesAlexander Bublik vs Tommy PaulNo line posted
69%model under %
1.52fair price
PickUnder 10.5Model68.6%Fair1.52Odds-238

Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul — Set 1 Total Games (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Under 10.5 at -238, fair price 1.52; our model makes it 68.6% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 1 WinnerAlexander Bublik vs Tommy PaulNo line posted
63%model win %
1.76fair price
PickTommy Paul set 1Model63.0%Fair1.76Odds-147

Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul — Set 1 Winner (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Tommy Paul set 1 at -147, fair price 1.76; our model makes it 63.0% (LEAN). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 2 WinnerAlexander Bublik vs Tommy PaulNo line posted
63%model win %
1.81fair price
PickTommy Paul set 2Model63.0%Fair1.81Odds-139

Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul — Set 2 Winner (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Tommy Paul set 2 at -139, fair price 1.81; our model makes it 63.0% (LEAN). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Tommy Paul @ Alexander Bublik — what the model found

Our model graded 21 betting markets for Tommy Paul at Alexander Bublik — 20 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 21 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 20 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 4 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
21
Total Picks
57.1%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
04 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Set 2 Winner Tommy Paul ✗ MISS
04 Sep 26 Spread Tommy Paul -5.5 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Spread Tommy Paul -4 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Spread Tommy Paul -3.5 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Spread Tommy Paul -3 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Total Games Under 41 ✗ MISS
04 Sep 26 Total Games Under 38.5 ✗ MISS
04 Sep 26 Total Games Under 39.5 ✗ MISS
04 Sep 26 Total Games Under 39 ✗ MISS
04 Sep 26 Set 1 Winner Tommy Paul ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Under 9.5 ✗ MISS
04 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Set 1 Total Games Over 8.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik in the Tennis. You may also see this matchup written as Paul vs Bublik, or as Bublik vs Paul. The most recent game between them was Friday 4 September 2026. The model has generated 20 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 57.1% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Tennis betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Completed matches · last 4 meetings
Tommy Paul 3–1 across the last 4 meetings
DateWinnerScoreTournamentSurface
31 Aug 2025Alexander Bublik7-6 6-7 6-3 6-7 6-1US Open · 3rd RoundHard
21 Mar 2025Tommy Paul5-7 7-5 6-4Miami Open · 2nd RoundHard
5 Jul 2024Tommy Paul6-3 6-4 6-2Wimbledon · 3rd RoundGrass
4 Mar 2021Tommy Paul6-7 6-3 6-1ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament · 2nd RoundHard
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