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Model picks & player props
Washington Nationals
VS
San Diego Padres

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 11:17PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Petco Park, San Diego
Outdoor
Wed 9 Sep 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 6.5 Total Runs +196

The model graded 70 markets for Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $296 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 9 Sep 2026, 8:10PM at Petco Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win47.4%
The price says34.2%
Best price+196
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 6.5 Lean47% chance +196
Spread Lean43% chance —
Spread Long-shot37% chance —
Total Runs High67% chance —
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Lean51% chance —
Total Runs High93% chance —
Total Runs High89% chance —
Spread Long-shot28% chance —
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings High93% chance —
Batter - Doubles × 3 props Highup to 75% —
Batter - Home Runs × 6 props Leanup to 47% —
Batter - Total Bases × 9 props Leanup to 47% —
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 86% —
Batter - Walks × 7 props Highup to 98% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres last met on Wed 9 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Manny Machado Over 1.5 · $100 returned $755

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 26 of 140 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 10
Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $690
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
8.5
-120
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,781+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Washington Nationals

  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Orlando Ribalta RPOut
  • Matt Waldron RPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

San Diego Padres

  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Luis Rengifo LFOut
  • Gavin Sheets 1BOut
  • Jeremiah Estrada RPOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut
Availability updated Sep 10, 4:22PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 10 Sep

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Prediction and Picks, September 10, 2026

On September 10, 2026 our model has run Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Samad Taylor Under 0.5 RBIs (-400), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Samad Taylor Under 0.5 RBIs (-400)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play Washington Nationals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Samad Taylor Under 0.5 RBIs (-400). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at -400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

CJ Abrams Under 0.5 Singles (-167)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play Washington Nationals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is CJ Abrams Under 0.5 Singles (-167). That is a Singles bet. It was priced at -167 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.99 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jackson Merrill (SDP) Under 0.5 RBIs (-227)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play Washington Nationals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jackson Merrill (SDP) Under 0.5 RBIs (-227). That is a RBIs bet. It was priced at -227 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.41 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals: Under 11 Total Runs (-323)

Odds correct at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play Washington Nationals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals: Under 11 Total Runs (-323). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -323 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+118)

Odds correct at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play Washington Nationals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+118). That is a spreads bet. It was priced at +118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play Washington Nationals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+114). That is a alternate spreads bet. It was priced at +114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 10 Sep

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 10, 2026

On September 10, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Dylan Crews (WSN) Under 0.5 Walks (-312)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play Washington Nationals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Dylan Crews (WSN) Under 0.5 Walks (-312). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -312 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.21 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Austin Hays (BAL) Under 0.5 Walks (-294)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play Washington Nationals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Austin Hays (BAL) Under 0.5 Walks (-294). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -294 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP) Under 1.5 Hits (-238)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

San Diego Padres play Washington Nationals in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP) Under 1.5 Hits (-238). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at -238 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Luis Campusano SDP Batter - Doubles
James Wood WSN Batter - Doubles
Manny Machado SDP Batter - Doubles
Manny Machado SDP Batter - Home Runs
Luis Campusano SDP Batter - Total Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Diego PadresNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Washington Nationals L54-1Free board17-12

San Diego Padres moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Diego Padres run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Washington Nationals L54-1

San Diego Padres spread form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsNo line posted

San Diego Padres total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Diego Padres team totalNo line posted
1.3runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Washington Nationals L54-1

San Diego Padres team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres — recent results

San Diego Padres have won 5 of their last 5 games; Washington Nationals have won 0 of their last 5.

San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–4WSHHome
W9–2WSHHome
W3–2WSHHome
W4–3NYYHome
W3–2NYYHome
Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–5SDAway
L2–9SDAway
L5–7LADAway
L2–3SDAway
L5–6LADAway

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: San Diego Padres won 4, Washington Nationals won 2.

DateSan Diego PadresWashington NationalsWinner
Sep 954San Diego Padres
Sep 992San Diego Padres
Sep 732San Diego Padres
May 3124Washington Nationals
May 3049Washington Nationals
May 2975San Diego Padres

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Luis Rengifo LFOUT
Gavin Sheets 1BOUT
Jeremiah Estrada RPOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
Ramon Laureano LFOUT
Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
Connelly Early SPOUT
Drew Millas COUT
Orlando Ribalta RPOUT
Matt Waldron RPOUT
Josiah Gray SPOUT
Richard Lovelady RPOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres — model preview

Our Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres prediction for September 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 10, 2026 our model has run Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Samad Taylor Under 0.5 RBIs (-400), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
09 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 ✓ HIT
09 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 10 ✓ HIT
09 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 11 ✓ HIT
09 Sep 26 Spread San Diego Padres -1 ✓ HIT
09 Sep 26 Moneyline San Diego Padres ✓ HIT
09 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 2.5 ✓ HIT
09 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 6.5 ✓ HIT
09 Sep 26 Total Runs Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
09 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings San Diego Padres 1.5 ✓ HIT
09 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 3.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Nationals vs Padres, or as Padres vs Nationals. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 9 September 2026 at Petco Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
San Diego Padres 17–7 across the last 24 meetings · these games average 9.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Sep 2026Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres5–4San Diego Padres
8 Sep 2026Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres5–4San Diego Padres
7 Sep 2026Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres3–2San Diego Padres
31 May 2026San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals4–2Washington Nationals
30 May 2026San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals9–4Washington Nationals
29 May 2026San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals5–7San Diego Padres
20 Jul 2025San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals1–8San Diego Padres
19 Jul 2025San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals4–2Washington Nationals
18 Jul 2025San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals2–7San Diego Padres
25 Jun 2025Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres1–0San Diego Padres

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

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