Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 10 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Brisbane Lions -5.5 spreads_q3, priced at -118 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Brisbane Lions -5.5 spreads_q3. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Fremantle Dockers -2.5 spreads_q4. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Fremantle Dockers -2.5 spreads_q2 (-115)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Fremantle Dockers -2.5 spreads_q2. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Fremantle Dockers -2.5 spreads_q3 (-116)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Fremantle Dockers -2.5 spreads_q3. It was priced at -116 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Under 46.5 team_totals_h1 (-122)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Under 46.5 team_totals_h1. It was priced at -122 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Under 25.5 team_totals_q1 (-120)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Under 25.5 team_totals_q1. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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