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Model picks & player props
Napoli
VS
Fiorentina

Napoli vs Fiorentina Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 8:05AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Soccer
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
Outdoor
Sun 20 Sep 2026, 10:30AM
17
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Napoli Draw No Bet -161

The model graded 17 markets for Napoli vs Fiorentina (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $162 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 20 Sep 2026, 10:30AM at Stadio Artemio Franchi.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win62.3%
The price says58.2%
Best price-161
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Draw No Bet Napoli High62% chance -161
Moneyline Lean45% chance —
Head to Head (3-Way) Lean45% chance —
Both Teams to Score Lean60% chance —
Spread High98% chance —
Spread High92% chance —
Spread Long-shot23% chance —
Both Teams to Score Lean44% chance —
Draw No Bet Lean43% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Soccer game on today's board →
Napoli are the model's favourite to beat Fiorentina, with a 52% chance to win. Kick-off Sun 20 Sep, 10:30AM at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Best bet: Napoli at -161.
How they've been scoring this season
NapoliFiorentina
Won-lost1-20-3
Goals scored per game1.70.3
Goals allowed per game1.73.0
On the road / at home1-1 away0-2 at home
Last 5 gamesWLLLLL
Their games average 3.3 total goals this season.
From the 3 Napoli and 3 Fiorentina games on our books this season.
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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best Soccer market — 57 of 117 right (soccer draw no bet calls)
This bet type · last timeSep 7
Cagliari
Lecce @ Cagliari
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $162
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Draw No Bet
Napoli
-161
+ 16 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
NapoliDraw No BetThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
NapoliMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
NapoliHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
YesBoth Teams to ScoreThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
NapoliSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
NapoliSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
NapoliSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
NoBoth Teams to ScoreThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
FiorentinaDraw No BetThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
FiorentinaSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Napoli

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Fiorentina

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Napoli vs Fiorentina: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNapoli @ FiorentinaNo line posted
2-2-4past meetings (last 8)
Napoli52%Home form8-4-8Away form12-7-1
past meetings, home wins2 / 8 home

In their last 8 meetings, Fiorentina have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 4.

Both Teams to ScoreNapoli @ FiorentinaNo line posted
5 / 8past meetings, both scored
Fiorentina55%Napoli60%Free board19-16
past meetings, both scored5 / 8 both scored

Both teams scored in 55% of Fiorentina's and 60% of Napoli's recent matches.

Total GoalsNapoli @ FiorentinaNo line posted
6 / 8past meetings, over 2.5
Home ov2.565%Away ov2.550%past meetings avg2.9
past meetings, over 2.56 / 8 over

The last 8 meetings averaged 2.9 goals, over 2.5 in 6 of them.

Napoli @ Fiorentina — what the model found

Our model graded 17 betting markets for Napoli at Fiorentina — 17 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

17
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 17 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 16 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
13 Sep 25 Both Teams to Score Yes ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Napoli vs Fiorentina in the Soccer. The next scheduled game is Sunday 20 September 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi. The model has generated 17 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 1 meeting
Napoli 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
31 Jan 2026Fiorentina @ Napoli2–1Napoli
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