On Saturday 5 September 2026, Ryan Spann takes on Mario Pinto in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Ryan Spann +3.5 on the Line, priced at +165 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Ryan Spann +3.5 on the Line (+165)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Ryan Spann and Mario Pinto are set to face off in what could be a close fight. Spann is the underdog here, but he has a real shot at keeping the fight within 3.5 points. Both fighters have different styles, and Spann will need to use his striking effectively to make a mark. Even though Pinto has a slight advantage in durability, the odds suggest Spann could surprise everyone. The matchup is tight, which makes this a risky bet since both fighters have shown they can win in various ways. With Spann's ability to score points and the fight likely being competitive, betting on him to stay within that margin seems promising. It was priced at +165 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $26.50 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ryan Spann to Win (+284)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Ryan Spann is stepping into the octagon against Mario Pinto, and he brings a lot of power to the fight. Spann is known for his striking and finishing ability, which means he can end the fight quickly if he finds the right opening. While Spann is younger, the age difference is small, so it won't be a huge factor. Pinto might have some tricks up his sleeve, but Spann's experience and skill set give him a real shot to win. The odds show he's an underdog, but that could mean good value for us. It was priced at +284 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $38.40 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Mario Pinto: last five W-W-W-W, on a 4-fight win streak, 25% of career wins came by knockout, 168 days since the last fight
  • Ryan Spann: last five W-W-L-W-L, on a 2-fight win streak, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 133 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Ryan Spann v Mario Pinto. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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