On Saturday 5 September 2026, Punahele Soriano takes on Daniil Donchenko in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Daniil Donchenko -7.5 on the Line, priced at -115 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Daniil Donchenko -7.5 on the Line (-115)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Punahele Soriano needs to rely on his striking to outpace Daniil Donchenko, but Donchenko has a slight reach advantage that could help him control the fight. With the numbers showing Donchenko has a good chance to win by at least eight points, it makes sense to back him at this spread. The real risk here is that both fighters are quite evenly matched, so it could be a tight contest. Betting on Donchenko -7.5 looks promising for this matchup. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Punahele Soriano to Win (+210)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Punahele Soriano is a strong fighter who has been looking good lately, showing off his striking skills in the octagon. He has a real chance to win this fight against Daniil Donchenko, making him a solid pick, especially with odds at +205. Soriano's style could give him the upper hand if he keeps the fight standing and uses his punches effectively. On the other hand, Donchenko is no slouch, and he can definitely put up a fight. The close age difference might mean both fighters are in their prime, which can make this matchup tricky. Still, Soriano has the tools to control the fight and come out on top. It was priced at +210 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $31 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Daniil Donchenko: last five W-W-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 70 days since the last fight
  • Punahele Soriano: last five W-W-W-W-L, on a 4-fight win streak, 24% of career wins came by knockout, 196 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Punahele Soriano v Daniil Donchenko. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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