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MLB · model output · updated daily

MLB predicted scores: the model's number for every game

As of 11 Sep 2026, the model rates Detroit Tigers 66% to beat Colorado Rockies, projected Detroit Tigers 6 – Colorado Rockies 3.1, in the next MLB game it has priced. 11 games are on the board below, every one graded in public on the record.

The model's projected final score for every upcoming MLB game it has priced — derived from its own margin and total estimates, refreshed as the model updates. Free to quote with credit. Updated 11 Sep 2026, 05:23 UTC

Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers 6, Colorado Rockies 3.1
Fri 11 Sep, 22:40 UTC · Detroit Tigers win chance: 66% · "Bet Better model: Detroit Tigers 6, Colorado Rockies 3.1"
Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals
Los Angeles Angels by 0.3
Fri 11 Sep, 22:45 UTC · "Bet Better model: Los Angeles Angels by 0.3"
New York Mets at New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.9, New York Mets 4
Fri 11 Sep, 23:05 UTC · "Bet Better model: New York Yankees 3.9, New York Mets 4"
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 6.3, Baltimore Orioles 4.2
Fri 11 Sep, 23:07 UTC · Toronto Blue Jays win chance: 59% · "Bet Better model: Toronto Blue Jays 6.3, Baltimore Orioles 4.2"
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 3.4, Houston Astros 4
Fri 11 Sep, 23:10 UTC · "Bet Better model: Tampa Bay Rays 3.4, Houston Astros 4"
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 4.1, Kansas City Royals 3.8
Fri 11 Sep, 23:10 UTC · "Bet Better model: Boston Red Sox 4.1, Kansas City Royals 3.8"
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves 3.6, Philadelphia Phillies 2.8
Fri 11 Sep, 23:15 UTC · "Bet Better model: Atlanta Braves 3.6, Philadelphia Phillies 2.8"
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 5.1, Cincinnati Reds 3.9
Fri 11 Sep, 23:45 UTC · Milwaukee Brewers win chance: 56% · "Bet Better model: Milwaukee Brewers 5.1, Cincinnati Reds 3.9"
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins 3.7, Cleveland Guardians 3.7
Sat 12 Sep, 00:10 UTC · Minnesota Twins win chance: 46% · "Bet Better model: Minnesota Twins 3.7, Cleveland Guardians 3.7"
Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 3.9, Chicago White Sox 4.8
Sat 12 Sep, 00:15 UTC · "Bet Better model: St. Louis Cardinals 3.9, Chicago White Sox 4.8"
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants 4.5, San Diego Padres 4.5
Sat 12 Sep, 02:15 UTC · San Francisco Giants win chance: 46% · "Bet Better model: San Francisco Giants 4.5, San Diego Padres 4.5"

How these are made: the model estimates a margin and a combined total for each game; the projected score is the pair of numbers those two imply. They are estimates, not certainties — treat them as the model's centre of gravity, not a promise. Quote freely with credit to Bet Better (CC BY 4.0). See MLB picks, live MLB odds, or the free model API for the underlying probabilities. 18+. Model output is not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.

Get this page as data: the same predictions are served machine-readable at mlb?format=csv and ?format=json — fixed columns, UTC times, free to use with credit. Trackers and aggregators welcome; the columns won't change without notice. More endpoints on the free model API page.

How accurate are these predictions?

Over the last 1952 graded MLB games, the model named the winner 54% of the time. The bookmakers' own prices pointed to the winner 55% of the time on the same games. Every game is graded against the final score — misses included.

The numbers for stat-heads

Brier score (lower is better): model 0.260 vs bookmaker-price 0.249. The bookmaker figure is taken from the tipped side's price at publish time, so it carries the bookmaker's margin. Window: last 90 days, one moneyline prediction per game, graded only when a final score is on our books.

The recordWhen our formula calls mlb batter home runs overs: 26 of 140 right · +$1,584 at $100 flat
Latest cashed · this bet typeSep 10
Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
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