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Model picks & player props
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
VS
New Zealand Warriors

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs New Zealand Warriors Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 3:58AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NRL
Sat 5 Sep 2026, 5:00AM
20
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
59.2%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -1.5 Alt Spread +300

The model graded 26 markets for Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs New Zealand Warriors (NRL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $400 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 59.2% across 49 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 5 Sep 2026, 5:00AM.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win29.5%
The price says23.4%
Best price+300
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -1.5 Long-shot30% chance +300
Alt Spread Long-shot38% chance
Alt Spread Long-shot14% chance
Alt Spread Long-shot13% chance
Alt Spread Lean52% chance
Alt Spread High64% chance
Alt Spread Lean60% chance
Alt Spread Lean58% chance
Alt Spread Long-shot19% chance
Anytime Try × 1 prop Long-shotup to 14%
Tries Over × 2 props Long-shotup to 1%
Try Scorer First × 2 props Long-shotup to 2%
Try Scorer Last × 1 prop Long-shotup to 2%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles and New Zealand Warriors last met on Sat 5 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every NRL game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 58.5 · $100 returned $400

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best NRL market — 87 of 147 right (nrl totals overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 6
Over 44.5
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STAKE $100RETURNS $171
Our call on this game: 1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alt Spread
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
+13.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over1st Half Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Manly Warringah Sea EaglesAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Player availability is not tracked for NRL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

New Zealand Warriors

Player availability is not tracked for NRL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs New Zealand Warriors: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and player availability isn't tracked for NRL on this page.

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The preview

Written 5 Sep

New Zealand Warriors vs Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Prediction & Picks (Jake Trbojevic Key Factor): Analytics Breakdown

On Saturday 5 September 2026, New Zealand Warriors play Manly Warringah Sea Eagles in the NRL. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +10.5 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +10.5 on the Line (-110)

Odds available at Unibet at time of publishing

On Saturday 5 September 2026, New Zealand Warriors host Manly Warringah Sea Eagles in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 10.5 Line. On this line Manly Warringah Sea Eagles start with 10.5 points in hand, so they can lose by less than that and this still wins. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. That price was showing at Unibet. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to Win the First Half (+200)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

On Saturday 5 September 2026, New Zealand Warriors host Manly Warringah Sea Eagles in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Manly Warringah Sea Eagles First Half Match Winner. This one only needs Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to be in front at half time. It was priced at +200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $30 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $30 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to Win (+275)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

On Saturday 5 September 2026, New Zealand Warriors host Manly Warringah Sea Eagles in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Match Winner. This one only needs Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to win the game. It was priced at +275 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $37.50 if it lands. That price was showing at Betfair. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +275 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $37.50 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jake Trbojevic to Score a Try (+2000)

Odds available at PointsBet at time of publishing

On Saturday 5 September 2026, New Zealand Warriors host Manly Warringah Sea Eagles in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Jake Trbojevic Anytime Try Scorer. This wins if Jake Trbojevic scores a try at any point in the game. It was priced at +2000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $210 if it lands. That price was showing at PointsBet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +2000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $210 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jacob Laban Over 2.5 Tries (+10000)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

On Saturday 5 September 2026, New Zealand Warriors host Manly Warringah Sea Eagles in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Jacob Laban Over 2.5 Tries. This wins if Jacob Laban scores at least 3 tries. It was priced at +10000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $1010 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Jacob Laban has scored a try in each of his last 3 games. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +10000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $1010 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads New Zealand Warriors v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Corey Waddell Anytime Try
Corey Waddell Tries Over
Corey Waddell Try Scorer First
Corey Waddell Try Scorer Last
Caleb Navale Try Scorer First

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles @ New Zealand Warriors — what the model found

Our model graded 26 betting markets for Manly Warringah Sea Eagles at New Zealand Warriors — 20 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 26 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 25 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles @ New Zealand Warriors — model preview

New Zealand Warriors v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, 5 September 2026. Top of the list: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +10.5 on the Line.

On Saturday 5 September 2026, New Zealand Warriors play Manly Warringah Sea Eagles in the NRL. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +10.5 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +10.5 on the Line (-110)

Odds available at Unibet at time of publishing

On Saturday 5 September 2026, New Zealand Warriors host Manly Warringah Sea Eagles in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 10.5 Line. On this line Manly Warringah Sea Eagles start with 10.5 points in hand, so they can lose by less than that and this still wins. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. That price was showing at Unibet. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
49
Total Picks
59.2%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +13.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +7.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +16.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +2.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +8.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +12.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -12.5 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +9.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -1.5 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -13.5 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -9.5 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +15.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +23.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles +14.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Alt Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -6.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs New Zealand Warriors in the NRL. You may also see this matchup written as Eagles vs Warriors, or as Warriors vs Eagles. The most recent game between them was Saturday 5 September 2026. The model has generated 20 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 59.2% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NRL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 1 meeting
New Zealand Warriors 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
5 Sep 2026Sea Eagles @ Warriors31–30Warriors
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