Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kyler Murray is Over 39.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 32 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 32%, implied 26%, edge +6.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 14, 9:10AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt)
Over 39.5
+290 (3.90) · $100→$390
+6.3% Edge
Green Bay Packers
@
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 8:25PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 190 of 239 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
Murray is undergoing a concussion evaluation after taking a hard hit in Sunday's Week 1 matchup versus the Packers.
updated Sep 13, 9:11PM UTC
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How often this wins
32 in 100
Predicted
34.1 Rushing Yards (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 32.0% · the book's price implies 25.6% · gap +6.3%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Yards (Alt) | 32.0% | — | 25.6% | 3.90 | +6.3% |
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Kyler Murray (MIN) Over 39.5 Player rush yds alternate (+290)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Minnesota Vikings play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kyler Murray (MIN) Over 39.5 Player rush yds alternate. It was priced at +290 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $39 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formPassing Yards9 lines trackedNo line posted
124.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–219.5model over99%tips tracked9
Kyler Murray's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 9 times, typically around a 124.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Rushing Yards7 lines trackedNo line posted 9.5typical line · rushing yds
line range9.5–39.5model over98%tips tracked7
Kyler Murray's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 7 times, typically around a 9.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Attempts |
5.5 |
Under |
-141 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Passing Yards |
219.5 |
Under |
-112 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Passing Yards |
218.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings |
Rushing Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Kyler Murray (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kyler Murray is Over 39.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.3% on this pick. Their next game is Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings on Sunday 13 September at Minnesota. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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