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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jonathan Aranda is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On Batter - Total Bases, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 70%, implied 64%, edge +6.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 0.50 total baseslanded 7 of the last 10
Over 0.50 1Blanded 3 of the last 3
Over 0.50 Hlanded 3 of the last 3

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 11, 6:09AM UTC
MLB

Jonathan Aranda

TBR

+6.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -179 (1.56) · $100→$156
+6.1% Edge
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
Fri 11 Sep, 11:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb batter home runs overs: 26 of 140 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
0.4 Batter - Total Bases
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.2% · the book's price implies 64.1% · gap +6.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases70.2%—64.1%1.42+6.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/7

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AI Analysis

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Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros: Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 Batter - Total Bases (-179)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Jonathan Aranda has been a bit quiet at the plate lately, and that's important to consider. He has averaged just 1.4 hits, runs, and RBIs in his last 10 games at Tropicana Field, which isn't great for finding success. Facing the Houston Astros, who also have a solid lineup against left-handed pitchers, adds to the challenge for him. The bet is for Aranda to get under 1.5 total bases. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance of falling short of that. With both teams performing similarly and Aranda's recent stats showing he might struggle, this could be a tough night for him at the plate.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)
Overall Hit Rate (20 picks) 70.0% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Jonathan Aranda's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Batter Total Bases 1.5
How many home runs does Jonathan Aranda hit?

Jonathan Aranda's batter total bases line is 1.5.

Recent form (last 5 games)

Jonathan Aranda is averaging 0.6 hits, 0.2 home runs and 0.4 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

0.6
Hits
0.2
HR
0.4
RBI
0.4
Runs
0.8
Walks
0.4
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Hits Runs Rbis

Jonathan Aranda has gone over 0.5 hits runs rbis in 100% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o0.5100%
o1.533%
o2.533%
o3.50%
o4.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jonathan Aranda is averaging 0.6 hits per game over his last 5 and 0.6 in away games, including his recent form against TOR.

0.6
Hits · Overall
0.6
Hits · Away
1.0
Hits · vs TOR
0.2
HR · Overall
0.2
HR · Away
0.6
HR · vs TOR
Quick answers:How many home runs does Jonathan Aranda hit?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Sep 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves Batter - Singles 0.5 Under -119 ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves Batter - RBIs 0.5 Under -333 ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 1.5 Under -123 ✓ HIT
10 Sep 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves Batter - Hits — — — Pending
10 Sep 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves Batter - Walks — — — Pending
10 Sep 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jonathan Aranda (TBR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 70.0% on tracked Jonathan Aranda picks. The latest model pick for Jonathan Aranda is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.1% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays on Friday 11 September at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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