Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zac Bailey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 71%, edge +3.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
AFL
Zac Bailey
Brisbane Lions
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+3.0% Edge
Adelaide Crows
@
Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
74 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 74.4% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +3.0%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 74.4% | — | 71.4% | 1.34 | +3.0% |
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Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-250)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals. It was priced at -250 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Zac Bailey's lines for Sat 12 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Goals 0.5
Zac Bailey's goals line is 0.5.
Season averages (2024)
Zac Bailey averaged 16.3 disposals, 1.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Zac Bailey has cleared 16.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o16.5100%
o17.5100%
o19.580%
o21.550%
o23.540%
o24.530%
o26.510%
o28.520%
o30.50%
o31.50%
o33.50%
o35.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Zac Bailey is averaging 22.2 disposals per game over his last 5.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Zac Bailey recorded 17 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 28 Sep 24 | Sydney Swans | 17 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
| 21 Sep 24 | Geelong Cats | 19 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 Sep 24 | GWS GIANTS | 11 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 7 Sep 24 | Carlton | 18 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 24 Aug 24 | Essendon | 17 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Collingwood | 15 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Aug 24 | GWS GIANTS | 13 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 4 Aug 24 | St Kilda | 20 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Jul 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 13 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
| 21 Jul 24 | Sydney Swans | 14 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zac Bailey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.0% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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