Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Wayne Milera is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 73%, implied 88%, edge +1.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
AFL
Wayne Milera
Adelaide Crows
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 17.5
-714 (1.14) · $100→$114
+1.8% Edge
Adelaide Crows
@
Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
90 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 89.5% · the book's price implies 87.7% · gap +1.8%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 89.5% | 72.8% | 87.7% | 1.37 | +1.8% |
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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Wayne Milera Over 17.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Wayne Milera has been playing really well lately, and he's been getting plenty of chances to grab the ball. Our numbers show that he's been making about half a goal assist each game and has been involved in more clearances than usual. This form makes us think he can easily rack up over 17.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba.
The biggest risk is that both teams are pretty close in skill, which could affect how much time Milera has to get those disposals. Still, with the way he's performing right now, this bet makes sense.
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Wayne Milera's lines for Sat 12 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Disposals 17.5
Wayne Milera's disposals line is 17.5.
Kicks 13.5
Wayne Milera's kicks line is 13.5.
Fantasy 74.5
Wayne Milera's fantasy line is 74.5.
Fantasy 79.5
Wayne Milera's fantasy line is 79.5.
Disposals 21.5
Wayne Milera's disposals line is 21.5.
Disposals 20.5
Wayne Milera's disposals line is 20.5.
Marks 3.5
Wayne Milera's marks line is 3.5.
Disposals 19.5
Wayne Milera's disposals line is 19.5.
Season averages (2024)
Wayne Milera averaged 15.3 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.7 marks per game across 3 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Wayne Milera has cleared 15.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o15.5100%
o16.590%
o18.5100%
o20.580%
o22.550%
o24.540%
o26.530%
o27.510%
o29.510%
o31.510%
o33.520%
o35.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Wayne Milera is averaging 23.6 disposals per game over his last 5.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (29 Mar 24 vs Fremantle), Wayne Milera recorded 13 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 29 Mar 24 | Fremantle | 13 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 22 Mar 24 | Geelong Cats | 14 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 Mar 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 19 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 26 Aug 23 | West Coast Eagles | 19 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 19 Aug 23 | Sydney Swans | 21 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 Aug 23 | Brisbane Lions | 28 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 5 Aug 23 | Gold Coast SUNS | 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 29 Jul 23 | Port Adelaide | 32 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 23 Jul 23 | Melbourne | 19 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 15 Jul 23 | GWS GIANTS | 21 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
Wayne Milera (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Wayne Milera is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.8% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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