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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Wade Derksen is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 72%, implied 85%, edge +3.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:06AM UTC
AFL

Wade Derksen

Carlton

+3.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+3.6% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
14.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 89.1% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap +3.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals89.1%72.2%85.5%1.39+3.6%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Wade Derksen Over 9.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Wade Derksen needs to get more than 9.5 disposals tonight for this bet to win. He's been playing well, and Carlton's style means he should have plenty of chances to get the ball, especially since they give up a fair number of possessions. Geelong's recent games show they often get the ball inside 50 more than their opponents, which means more opportunities for players like Derksen. Plus, Carlton has been winning contested ball, but they still allow a decent number of points. The biggest risk is that Derksen's performance might not match his recent form if the game turns out to be low-scoring. Overall, he's got a solid chance to hit that number.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Wade Derksen - AFL Disposals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 9.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 11.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 10.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Wade Derksen (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Wade Derksen is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.6% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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