Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ty Gallop is Over 3.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 78%, implied 77%, edge +1.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL
Ty Gallop
Brisbane Lions
Latest Model Pick
Marks
Over 3.5
-333 (1.30) · $100→$130
+1.0% Edge
Adelaide Crows
@
Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
78 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 77.9% · the book's price implies 76.9% · gap +1.0%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Marks | 77.9% | — | 76.9% | 1.28 | +1.0% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 2/3 |
| Last 5 games | 2/5 |
| Last 10 games | 2/9 |
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Ty Gallop (Brisbane Lions) Over 3.5 player_marks_over (-333)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Ty Gallop (Brisbane Lions) Over 3.5 player_marks_over. It was priced at -333 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Ty Gallop's lines for Sat 12 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Marks 3.5
Ty Gallop's marks line is 3.5.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Ty Gallop has cleared 9.5 disposals in 60% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o9.560%
o10.540%
o11.530%
o12.522%
o13.530%
o14.520%
o16.50%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%
o21.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Ty Gallop is averaging 11.4 disposals per game over his last 5.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Ty Gallop (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ty Gallop is Over 3.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.0% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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