Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Travis Boak is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 87 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 87%, implied 85%, edge +1.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL
Travis Boak
Port Adelaide
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 14.5
-588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+1.6% Edge
Port Adelaide Power
@
Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 26 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
87 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 87.1% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap +1.6%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 87.1% | — | 85.5% | 1.15 | +1.6% |
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Travis Boak (Port Adelaide) Over 14.5 Disposals (-588)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Travis Boak's recent form, averaging 19.4 disposals in his last five away games, indicates he's consistently surpassing the 14.5 mark. With an average of 17 disposals against the upcoming opponent and solid metrics like 67.0% disposal efficiency, Boak's ability to find the ball efficiently is noteworthy. His current hit streak of six and a 100% hit rate in the last four away games demonstrate his consistency. The model's prediction of 20.2 disposals with a narrow standard deviation of 5 further supports Boak's potential to exceed the line. Considering his reliable form and the matchup dynamics, backing Boak to go over 14.5 disposals in this away game against the Adelaide Crows seems like a prudent bet.
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Season averages (2024)
Travis Boak averaged 18.2 disposals, 0.2 goals and 5.0 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Travis Boak recorded 22 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 20 Sep 24 | Sydney Swans | 22 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| 13 Sep 24 | Hawthorn | 13 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 5 Sep 24 | Geelong Cats | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 25 Aug 24 | Fremantle | 18 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Adelaide Crows | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Melbourne | 29 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Sydney Swans | 12 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 26 Jul 24 | Carlton | 22 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| 20 Jul 24 | Richmond | 24 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 Jul 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 25 | 1 | 9 | 4 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Travis Boak (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Travis Boak is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 26 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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