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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom McCartin is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 76%, implied 70%, edge +5.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:06AM UTC
AFL

Tom McCartin

Sydney Swans

+5.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+5.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
17.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.1% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +5.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.1%70.4%1.31+5.7%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions: Tom McCartin Over 13.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Tom McCartin to have over 13.5 disposals look promising. Our numbers show he has a strong chance based on how he's been playing lately. The Sydney Swans have been doing well, winning 7 of their last 10 games and scoring an impressive 111 points a match. McCartin has been part of that success, especially since the Swans tend to win contested balls, giving him plenty of opportunities to get his hands on the ball. However, the Brisbane Lions are no pushovers, having won 9 of their last 10 games too. They also defend well, allowing only 83.2 points on average. This means McCartin will need to work hard to get those disposals. If he can find the ball early, he has a solid shot at clearing that 13.5 mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom McCartin averaged 11.4 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.8 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

11.4
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.8
Marks
0.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom McCartin recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions7011
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide15080
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS7050
16 Aug 24Essendon140100
9 Aug 24Collingwood7011
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide11041
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs17061
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions14061
13 Jul 24North Melbourne13050
7 Jul 24St Kilda19091
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 11.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom McCartin (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom McCartin is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 5 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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