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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Brown is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 85 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 85%, implied 75%, edge +9.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Tom Brown

Richmond

+9.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+9.5% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers
Ninja Stadium, Hobart, TAS · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
85 in 100
Predicted
16.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 84.6% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +9.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals84.6%75.2%1.18+9.5%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Brown (Richmond) Over 11.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Tom Brown's recent form at Ninja Stadium, it's clear he thrives on his home turf. Over his last 5 home games, Brown has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 12.4 disposals per game. His ability to find the ball in traffic is evident with an average of 3.8 contested possessions, while maintaining an impressive disposal efficiency of 78.9%. With the Tigers hosting the Brisbane Lions, a team against whom Brown has historically performed well in terms of disposals, averaging 13.5 over their last 5 encounters, the stage is set for him to once again shine. With a line set at 11.5 disposals, backing Brown to surpass this mark seems like a smart play given his recent consistency and the favorable matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Tom Brown averaged 12.5 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

12.5
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.8
Marks
0.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (3 Aug 24 vs North Melbourne), Tom Brown recorded 8 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
3 Aug 24North Melbourne8130
28 Jul 24Collingwood8350
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide8041
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS14040
6 Jul 24Fremantle16030
30 Jun 24Carlton9031
15 Jun 24Hawthorn12052
6 Jun 24Adelaide Crows16041
1 Jun 24Geelong Cats13031
25 May 24Essendon12021
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 11.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 10.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 9.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Brown (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Brown is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.5% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 14 June at Ninja Stadium, Hobart. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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