Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Walsh is Over 26.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 54%, implied 61%, edge +10.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 26.5
-154 (1.65) · $100→$165
+10.9% Edge
Carlton Blues
@
Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
How often this wins
71 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 71.5% · the book's price implies 60.6% · gap +10.9%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 71.5% | 54.3% | 60.6% | 1.84 | +10.9% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime
Sam Walsh (Carlton) Over 26.5 Disposals (-154)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Sam Walsh is in the kind of form that makes a line of 26.5 look genuinely thin. The model projects him at 29.1 disposals — a 2.6-touch buffer above the number — with a 10.9% edge against implied odds of 60.6%. That's a meaningful gap, not a marginal one.
The underlying numbers back it up hard. Walsh is averaging 29 disposals across his last five away games, and specifically against Geelong in away fixtures he's averaging 31 — well clear of this line. His overall L5 sits at 31.4, and he's hit this mark in three straight games with a 3/3 recent hit rate overall and 2/3 away. The engine room of his game is humming too: 11.2 contested possessions and 314.8 metres gained away from home tell you he's not just accumulating — he's working hard for his touches. At $1.65, this represents a legitimate edge worth backing.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Season averages (2024)
Sam Walsh averaged 28.4 disposals, 0.3 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Sam Walsh recorded 28 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 7 Sep 24 | Brisbane Lions | 28 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 25 Aug 24 | St Kilda | 32 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 18 Aug 24 | West Coast Eagles | 23 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Hawthorn | 24 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Collingwood | 30 | 0 | 10 | 6 |
| 26 Jul 24 | Port Adelaide | 23 | 0 | 1 | 11 |
| 21 Jul 24 | North Melbourne | 25 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Western Bulldogs | 27 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 Jul 24 | GWS GIANTS | 22 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 30 Jun 24 | Richmond | 26 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
Sam Walsh (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Walsh is Over 26.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.9% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.