Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Flanders is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 78%, implied 67%, edge +11.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL
Sam Flanders
Gold Coast SUNS
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 14.5
-200 (1.50) · $100→$150
+11.6% Edge
Gold Coast Suns
@
Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 13 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
78 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 78.3% · the book's price implies 66.7% · gap +11.6%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 78.3% | — | 66.7% | 1.28 | +11.6% |
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Sam Flanders (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-200)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Sam Flanders is poised to shine away against Brisbane based on his recent form. With a model-predicted 18.4 disposals and a significant 11.6% edge, Flanders has been consistently hitting an average of 20.6 disposals in his last five away games. Notably, he has surpassed 14.5 disposals in 16 out of his last 20 away matches. Facing Brisbane, he averages 20.7 disposals in their matchups. Flanders' ability to gain meters (146 avg) and maintain a high disposal efficiency (79.5%) further supports this bet. Expect him to continue his trend of solid performances, making the Over 14.5 disposals enticing for this matchup at the Gabba.
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Season averages (2024)
Sam Flanders averaged 30.9 disposals, 0.5 goals and 5.5 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Richmond), Sam Flanders recorded 29 disposals and 2 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 24 Aug 24 | Richmond | 29 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Melbourne | 28 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Essendon | 22 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2 Aug 24 | West Coast Eagles | 25 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 27 Jul 24 | Brisbane Lions | 33 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 Jul 24 | GWS GIANTS | 43 | 0 | 7 | 2 |
| 14 Jul 24 | Port Adelaide | 30 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 6 Jul 24 | North Melbourne | 27 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 29 Jun 24 | Collingwood | 33 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 23 Jun 24 | Fremantle | 33 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Sam Flanders (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Flanders is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.6% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 13 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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