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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Berry is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 66 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 66%, implied 75%, edge +8.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:52AM UTC
AFL

Sam Berry

Adelaide Crows

+8.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+8.2% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 11°C (May 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
83 in 100
Predicted
22.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 83.4% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +8.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals83.4%66.3%75.2%1.51+8.2%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Sam Berry Over 17.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

You can get a solid bet on Sam Berry to have over 17.5 disposals in the game against the Adelaide Crows. Our numbers really like this pick, showing Berry as a strong favorite to hit that mark. He has been known to get involved frequently, and the game at the Gabba should give him plenty of chances to rack up those disposals. The biggest risk here is that both teams have been pretty tight lately, which could limit his opportunities. However, with the way Berry has been playing, he should find ways to get his hands on the ball. It's not a guarantee, but there's a good chance he'll come through for you.

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Pick History & Track Record

Sam Berry's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 17.5

Sam Berry's disposals line is 17.5.

Disposals 16.5

Sam Berry's disposals line is 16.5.

Disposals 15.5

Sam Berry's disposals line is 15.5.

Fantasy 79.5

Sam Berry's fantasy line is 79.5.

Fantasy 74.5

Sam Berry's fantasy line is 74.5.

Fantasy 69.5

Sam Berry's fantasy line is 69.5.

Disposals 19.5

Sam Berry's disposals line is 19.5.

Disposals 18.5

Sam Berry's disposals line is 18.5.

Season averages (2024)

Sam Berry averaged 13.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 1.4 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

13.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
1.4
Marks
5.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Sam Berry has cleared 13.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o13.590%
o14.590%
o16.590%
o18.570%
o19.570%
o21.540%
o23.540%
o24.520%
o26.520%
o28.510%
o29.510%
o31.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Sam Berry is averaging 21.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

21.0
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Sam Berry recorded 22 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans22104
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide21005
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs14018
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats18036
28 Jul 24Hawthorn12017
19 Jul 24Essendon18114
13 Jul 24St Kilda150012
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions19054
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS21027
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans5010
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Kicks 9.5 Over -130 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Fantasy 74.5 Over -313 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Fantasy 69.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Berry is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.2% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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