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The latest Bet Better model pick for Rory Laird is Over 4.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 61%, implied 68%, edge +5.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL

Rory Laird

Adelaide Crows

+5.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 4.5 -208 (1.48) · $100→$148
+5.6% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
6.0 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.2% · the book's price implies 67.6% · gap +5.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks73.2%61.1%67.6%1.64+5.6%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Rory Laird Over 4.5 Marks (-208)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Rory Laird has been a solid player for the Adelaide Crows, and he's facing the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba. The Lions struggle to contest marks, which means Laird could get more chances to rack them up. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance to get over 4.5 marks in this match, especially because he should find space when the Lions aren't pressuring him. However, the Crows' midfield can be unpredictable, and that could limit Laird's opportunities. Still, with the way the matchup looks, it seems like a great spot for him to shine. Keep an eye on how the game unfolds, but this bet has potential.

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Pick History & Track Record

Rory Laird's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Marks 4.5

Rory Laird's marks line is 4.5.

Marks 3.5

Rory Laird's marks line is 3.5.

Disposals 18.5

Rory Laird's disposals line is 18.5.

Kicks 9.5

Rory Laird's kicks line is 9.5.

Disposals 17.5

Rory Laird's disposals line is 17.5.

Fantasy 69.5

Rory Laird's fantasy line is 69.5.

Season averages (2024)

Rory Laird averaged 27.6 disposals, 0.1 goals and 3.6 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

27.6
Disposals
0.1
Goals
3.6
Marks
5.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Rory Laird has cleared 14.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o14.590%
o15.590%
o17.5100%
o19.570%
o21.570%
o22.580%
o24.570%
o26.510%
o28.510%
o29.510%
o31.510%
o33.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Rory Laird is averaging 19.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

19.8
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Rory Laird recorded 28 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans28062
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide24023
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs28054
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats29065
28 Jul 24Hawthorn29038
19 Jul 24Essendon29027
13 Jul 24St Kilda310213
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions27055
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS23045
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans34066
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Rory Laird (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Rory Laird is Over 4.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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