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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mitch McGovern is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 60%, implied 65%, edge +6.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:45AM UTC
AFL

Mitch McGovern

Carlton

+6.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -189 (1.53) · $100→$153
+6.8% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
11.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.1% · the book's price implies 65.4% · gap +6.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.1%60.1%65.4%1.67+6.8%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Mitch McGovern Over 9.5 Disposals (-189)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mitch McGovern needs to record over 9.5 disposals for this bet to win tonight. He has been performing well lately, and with Carlton's strong form, he should have plenty of opportunities to get the ball. Carlton wins the contested ball by almost nine possessions a game, which means McGovern could see a lot of action. Geelong Cats have been pretty even in contested ball, but they've given up quite a few points and are likely to be under pressure. While Geelong has conceded an average of 84 points in their recent games, McGovern's role could see him rack up those disposals he needs. Just remember, one bad game or a tight defense could make it tricky for him to hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Mitch McGovern averaged 16.6 disposals, 0.2 goals and 4.7 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

16.6
Disposals
0.2
Goals
4.7
Marks
1.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Mitch McGovern recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions15051
18 Aug 24West Coast Eagles11010
11 Aug 24Hawthorn21072
3 Aug 24Collingwood21080
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide17034
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS14052
30 Jun 24Richmond18022
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats14052
9 Jun 24Essendon14132
30 May 24Port Adelaide9120
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 9.5 Over -189 ✗ MISS
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals 9.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Goals Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals Pending
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Goals Pending

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About This Player

Mitch McGovern (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mitch McGovern is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.8% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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