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The latest Bet Better model pick for Maurice Rioli is Over 3.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 26 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 26%, implied 13%, edge +8.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:46AM UTC
AFL

Maurice Rioli

Richmond

+8.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 3.5 +675 (7.75) · $100→$775
+8.1% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 22 Aug, 9:45AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
21 in 100
Predicted
2.1 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 21.0% · the book's price implies 12.9% · gap +8.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks21.0%26.1%12.9%3.83+8.1%

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AI Analysis

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Maurice Rioli (Richmond) Over 3.5 player_marks_over (+675)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to eyeing a player prop bet that could be a game-changer in the Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers clash, Maurice Rioli is the man to watch. Despite playing away, Rioli has been steadily making his mark on the field. Over his last five away games, he's been averaging 1.4 marks, showing his ability to find space and snatch those aerial balls. What's even more intriguing is Rioli's recent history against Geelong. In their past encounters, he's been hauling in an impressive average of 4.7 marks per game, surpassing the 3.5 line comfortably. Rioli's knack for contested marks could be a thorn in Geelong's side, making him a prime candidate to snag those crucial grabs inside 50. With these stats painting a promising picture, backing Maurice Rioli to go Over 3.5 marks could be a smart move for punters looking to capitalize on his aerial prowess.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Maurice Rioli averaged 9.4 disposals, 0.9 goals and 2.1 marks per game across 9 games in 2024.

9.4
Disposals
0.9
Goals
2.1
Marks
3.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Maurice Rioli recorded 9 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS9124
11 May 24Western Bulldogs9102
5 May 24Fremantle8011
24 Apr 24Melbourne14274
14 Apr 24West Coast Eagles9141
7 Apr 24St Kilda8214
31 Mar 24Sydney Swans17026
14 Mar 24Carlton4115
9 Mar 24Gold Coast SUNS7012
27 Aug 23Port Adelaide5012
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Marks 2.5 Over +235 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Marks 1.5 Over -133 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Marks — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Maurice Rioli (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Maurice Rioli is Over 3.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.1% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 22 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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