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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mark Keane is Over 3.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 63%, implied 74%, edge +2.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:54AM UTC
AFL

Mark Keane

Adelaide Crows

+2.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 3.5 -278 (1.36) · $100→$136
+2.0% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
5.5 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 75.6% · the book's price implies 73.5% · gap +2.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks75.6%63.1%73.5%1.59+2.0%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Mark Keane Over 3.5 Marks (-278)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Mark Keane has been doing really well lately, with a strong average of score involvements. He's been getting a lot of opportunities to make marks, showing he's in good form. The Brisbane Lions are facing the Adelaide Crows, and the Lions play at home, which usually gives them a nice boost. Keane is expected to grab over 3.5 marks in this game, and our numbers rate this as a solid pick. The biggest risk is that both teams are competitive, so the game could be tighter than expected. However, given Keane's recent performance, this bet looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Mark Keane's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Marks 3.5

Mark Keane's marks line is 3.5.

Disposals 13.5

Mark Keane's disposals line is 13.5.

Disposals 12.5

Mark Keane's disposals line is 12.5.

Disposals 11.5

Mark Keane's disposals line is 11.5.

Disposals 10.5

Mark Keane's disposals line is 10.5.

Season averages (2024)

Mark Keane averaged 16.8 disposals, 0.0 goals and 5.4 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

16.8
Disposals
0.0
Goals
5.4
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Mark Keane has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.590%
o10.590%
o11.590%
o13.580%
o14.570%
o16.550%
o17.540%
o18.50%
o20.520%
o21.520%
o23.50%
o24.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Mark Keane is averaging 16.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

16.6
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Mark Keane recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide18040
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs20060
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats18040
28 Jul 24Hawthorn15041
19 Jul 24Essendon12021
13 Jul 24St Kilda14002
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions20071
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS12061
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans14070
6 Jun 24Richmond16042
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Kicks 9.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Marks 3.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 13.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mark Keane (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mark Keane is Over 3.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.0% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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