Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Goals (-250)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Bontempelli is one of the most reliable goal-kickers among AFL midfielders, and the numbers here make a compelling case for backing him to snag at least one. The model projects him at 1.1 goals against a line of just 0.5, generating a 3.1% edge over the implied probability of 71.4% baked into the $1.40 price. His L5 away form is the real foundation — he's averaging 1.2 goals and 2.0 shots at goal in away games, converting at an impressive 55% accuracy, and he's hit this line in six of his last eight away trips. The specific matchup sweetens it further: in his last five away games against Adelaide, he's averaging 1.5 goals, well clear of his overall L5 average. He's also on a three-game overall streak of clearing the line. At short odds, this isn't a windfall, but the model edge is real and the form profile backs it up.