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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Logan Morris is Under 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 64%, implied 54%, edge +17.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:55AM UTC
AFL

Logan Morris

Brisbane Lions

+17.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 11.5 -116 (1.86) · $100→$186
+17.0% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
9.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.8% · the book's price implies 53.8% · gap +17.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.8%64.2%53.8%1.99+17.0%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Logan Morris Under 11.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Logan Morris has been struggling lately, and with the Brisbane Lions facing the Adelaide Crows at the Gabba, it might be tough for him to reach over 11.5 disposals. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance to fall short, considering his recent performances have shown no signs of hitting that mark consistently. He's not managed to get many disposals, and he's likely facing a strong defense from the Crows. The biggest risk here is how close the competition is between the teams, which could mean both sides are focused on their game plan. If the match is tight, players like Morris may not get the opportunities they need to rack up disposals. This bet looks solid, but remember, it's not a guarantee.

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Pick History & Track Record

Logan Morris's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 11.5

Logan Morris's disposals line is 11.5.

Season averages (2024)

Logan Morris averaged 8.2 disposals, 1.3 goals and 3.5 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.

8.2
Disposals
1.3
Goals
3.5
Marks
0.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Logan Morris has cleared 9.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.570%
o10.550%
o11.570%
o12.550%
o13.530%
o14.520%
o16.510%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.510%
o20.50%
o21.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Logan Morris is averaging 12.4 disposals per game over his last 5 and 11.2 in home games.

12.4
Disp · Overall
11.2
Disp · Home
3.6
Goals · Overall
3.2
Goals · Home

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Logan Morris recorded 10 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans10261
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats6250
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS2000
7 Sep 24Carlton12240
24 Aug 24Essendon12150
17 Aug 24Collingwood10052
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS8142
4 Aug 24St Kilda8230
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS15050
14 Jul 24West Coast Eagles9020
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 11.5 Under -125 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals 1.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Goals 1.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Goals Pending
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Goals Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals Pending

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About This Player

Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Logan Morris is Under 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.0% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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