Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lachie Neale is Over 2.5 on Tackles.
On Tackles, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 67%, edge +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:56AM UTC
AFL
Lachie Neale
Brisbane Lions
Latest Model Pick
Tackles
Over 2.5
-204 (1.49) · $100→$149
+4.1% Edge
Adelaide Crows
@
Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
71 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 71.2% · the book's price implies 67.1% · gap +4.1%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Tackles | 71.2% | — | 67.1% | 1.40 | +4.1% |
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Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) Over 2.5 player_tackles_over (-204)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) Over 2.5 player_tackles_over. It was priced at -204 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Lachie Neale's lines for Sat 12 Sep
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Tackles 2.5
Lachie Neale's tackles line is 2.5.
Season averages (2024)
Lachie Neale averaged 29.3 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Lachie Neale has cleared 21.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o21.580%
o22.580%
o24.570%
o25.570%
o27.560%
o28.540%
o30.540%
o32.530%
o33.530%
o35.510%
o36.520%
o38.510%
Home / away and opponent splits
Lachie Neale is averaging 26.2 disposals per game over his last 5.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Lachie Neale recorded 35 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 28 Sep 24 | Sydney Swans | 35 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 21 Sep 24 | Geelong Cats | 31 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| 14 Sep 24 | GWS GIANTS | 19 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 Sep 24 | Carlton | 27 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 24 Aug 24 | Essendon | 40 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Collingwood | 22 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 Aug 24 | GWS GIANTS | 24 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 4 Aug 24 | St Kilda | 33 | 0 | 6 | 2 |
| 27 Jul 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 35 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 21 Jul 24 | Sydney Swans | 18 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lachie Neale is Over 2.5 on Tackles. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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