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The latest Bet Better model pick for Kai Lohmann is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 75%, implied 84%, edge +3.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 3:53AM UTC
AFL

Kai Lohmann

Brisbane Lions

+3.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -526 (1.19) · $100→$119
+3.8% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
88 in 100
Predicted
1.8 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 87.9% · the book's price implies 84.0% · gap +3.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals87.9%75.3%84.0%1.33+3.8%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Kai Lohmann Over 0.5 Goals (-526)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Kai Lohmann to score over 0.5 goals are looking solid. Our numbers really like this bet, showing that he's been involved in scoring moments much more than usual. With a strong history of winning one-on-one contests and high chances of contributing to goals, this pick feels promising. One thing to keep in mind is that the game is going to be close, and the Adelaide Crows can be a tough opponent. Even so, Lohmann's chances of finding the scoreboard are good, and the odds reflect that he's a strong favorite in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Kai Lohmann's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Goals 0.5
How many disposals does Kai Lohmann average?

Kai Lohmann's goals line is 0.5.

Disposals 9.5
How many disposals does Kai Lohmann average?

Kai Lohmann's disposals line is 9.5.

Season averages (2024)

Kai Lohmann averaged 11.6 disposals, 1.3 goals and 3.9 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

11.6
Disposals
1.3
Goals
3.9
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Kai Lohmann has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.580%
o10.580%
o11.560%
o12.560%
o13.530%
o14.530%
o16.530%
o17.520%
o18.510%
o19.510%
o20.510%
o21.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Kai Lohmann is averaging 14.0 disposals per game over his last 5 and 14.0 in home games.

14.0
Disp · Overall
14.0
Disp · Home
1.4
Goals · Overall
2.6
Goals · Home

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Kai Lohmann recorded 15 disposals and 4 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans15454
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats16143
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS9233
7 Sep 24Carlton11252
24 Aug 24Essendon14343
17 Aug 24Collingwood12252
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS13044
4 Aug 24St Kilda14058
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS14122
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans14052
Quick answers:How many disposals does Kai Lohmann average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -556 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Goals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kai Lohmann is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.8% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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